World meat industry news

Pig farming in Russia is showing stable production growth, which will not stop in 2024. “We base our forecasts on updated business plans of enterprises that produce pork. We expect that in 2024, production growth as a whole will remain approximately at the level of 2023 and will be in the range of 4–5%. In physical terms, it will amount to approximately 200 thousand tons of pork in slaughter weight,” Yuri Kovalev, General Director of the National Union of Pig Breeders, told.

Yuri Kovalev speaks with restraint about forecasts for pork exports, despite the fact that China has lifted all epizootic restrictions on African swine fever from Russia. “It’s too early to talk about China, because the lifting of restrictions on ASF and the recognition of our regionalization do not yet mean the start of supplies. It is difficult to say how long it will take for specific Russian enterprises to enter the Chinese market. Therefore, we leave the forecast for the export of Russian pig products for the next year within the range of 200–230 thousand tons,” comments the head of the union.

An increase in pork exports is expected due to the opening of the Chinese market to Russian producers. I think that in 2024, 40-50 thousand tons can be sent to China, the main thing is to start.

Among the factors that will influence the pig-breeding market, Yuri Kovalev names the grain price environment and consumer demand. “I would like to note that the growth in demand for pork is driven by prices for these products. Over the past 8 years, pork has proven to be the slowest growing meat in price. From 2015 to September 2023, consumer prices for pork increased by only 20–22%. At the same time, prices for poultry meat increased during this period by an average of 50% and beef prices increased by approximately the same amount. Since the summer of 2023, wholesale prices for pork have been lower than for poultry in similar positions. For example, broiler fillet is 10-15% more expensive than boneless pork shoulder.

In general, the volume of the meat market in Russia in 2024 will increase by 2–3% compared to 2023 and will amount to 11.6–12 million tons in slaughter weight.