Beef production in 2024 will increase by 2-4% compared to 2023. “The increase in production will be shown by large agricultural producers and private farms,” analysts comment. At the same time, she believes that the number of cattle will decline, including on private farms.
Professor of the Department of Corporate Governance and Innovation at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Andrey Poltarykhin points out that beef remains one of the most expensive types of meat, so demand for it is low. “Low prospects for consumption growth, as well as competition with pork, chicken and turkey, are the main reasons for the decline in the investment attractiveness of the industry. To change the situation, long-term investments are required, which are impossible without government support. It is necessary to develop beef production in medium and small farms, as well as provide the necessary support measures to large players,” the economist believes.
“Beef exports will grow at a moderate pace in accordance with production in large agricultural organizations,” experts predict. Andrey Poltarykhin notes that since last year, supplies of Russian beef to China, which accounts for more than half of all Russian exports, have increased significantly. “In general, the volume of shipments of cattle meat from Russia has been stable since last year - this is due to the fact that the country’s domestic market has determined the volume of its consumption in recent years, and this volume has not changed since then,” the expert explains.
As for the import of cattle meat to Russia, the quota for duty-free import of beef is planned to be extended in 2024. Andrey Poltarykhin notes that it is allowed to import frozen cattle meat for the production of meat products without duty. Moreover, Russia buys the cheapest parts of the carcass, so buying such imported raw materials is profitable for import even at the current ruble exchange rate. The economist points out that the price dynamics in the main exporting countries also influence the price of beef. He adds that the government is introducing duty-free imports to stabilize prices for meat products.
In general, the volume of the meat market in Russia in 2024 will increase by 2–3% compared to 2023 and will amount to 11.6–12 million tons in slaughter weight.
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