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During the week from April 11 to April 17, inflation in the Russian Federation decreased in annual terms to 2.82%. A week earlier, the figure was 3.15%. The data are given in the review of the current economic situation, which was presented by the Ministry of Economic Development. The report notes that inflation fell mainly due to the rate of growth in prices in the services sector by 0.06%. Cheaper air tickets for flights across Russia, as well as household services. Due to what such indicators were achieved and how inflation can be slowed down - in the material of Izvestia.

A weak ruble will affect

Food prices rose by 0.08%, mainly due to vegetables and fruits. Consumer goods are sold at the same prices as a week earlier. In March, inflation was 3.5%. According to the calculations of the Ministry of Economy, the annual rate will reach a record 5.3%, and in 2024-2025 the figure will not exceed 4%.

According to Rosstat, over the last reporting week, annual inflation fell below 3% (2.82% yoy according to the Ministry of Economics). This is a statistical effect that was expected, and it is associated with the withdrawal from the calculation of the base of the periods of the last year with the highest inflation (March 2022 - 7.6% mom, April 2022 - 1.6% mom), believes Olga Belenkaya, Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department of FG Finam.

— The current rate of price growth has also slowed down, primarily due to services (air tickets for domestic flights). In general, in the food segment, prices, with the exception of volatile fruits and vegetables, are growing weakly. There is an oversupply due to last year's record harvest and export restrictions. Prices for non-food products also practically do not grow, and in a number of categories (household appliances and electronics) they even decrease, despite the weakening of the ruble, she adds.

As the interlocutor of the publication notes, analysts of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation attribute this to large accumulated stocks of products, however, over time, the weakening of the ruble will most likely still be transferred to rising prices.

— In addition, producer prices moved to growth for the second month in a row. Current seasonally adjusted inflation rates generally tend to accelerate and in annual terms are approaching 4%, she clarifies.

According to Olga Belenkaya, the minimum annual inflation will be in April-May, then it will start to grow and from July it will return to above 4%, and by the end of the year it will be 6-7%.

Let's wait for the numbers

The current decline in inflation is due to the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate and low demand, Alexey Vedev, head of the laboratory for structural studies at the IPEI RANEPA, is sure.

— In addition, I would like to note that weekly inflation is calculated on a much narrower set of goods and services than monthly inflation. Therefore, according to the results of April, inflation can be adjusted,” he said.

Based on the latest data from Rosstat, as of April 17, inflation was about 2.7%, estimates Igor Safonov, an expert at the Institute for Development Center of the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

— This is almost entirely due to the effect of the high base in 2022, when the price increase for 12 months reached 17.7% in the same week. In the near future, the decline in the annual indicator of price dynamics will continue, its minimum value is expected in the last week of April - the first week of May, when it will be about 2.4%, according to our calculations, after which it will move to a gradual increase, also to a greater extent due to the effect bases. At the moment, by the end of the year, we forecast inflation at 4.9%,” the specialist added.

According to the interlocutor of Izvestia, in weekly terms, the dynamics of food prices may temporarily accelerate before the May holidays in response to increased demand.

“Meanwhile, the dynamics of prices for non-food products in the consumer basket will remain weak and, possibly, also near zero. Prices for paid services, which have shown a suspension this week, may accelerate again as the weekend and holiday season approach, as well as continued growth in prices for air travel and hotel services, Igor Safonov emphasizes.

Everything goes according to plan

Inflation is completely under the control of the Central Bank of Russia, says Yulia Makarenko, deputy director of the Banking Development Institute.

— Managed to curb inflation, which kept at a high level in winter (+11.8% in January, +11% in February) to below 3% already this spring. The effect of a high base is affecting, which will continue throughout 2023 (after high values in 2022), she believes.

The Central Bank is able at any time to use leverage in one direction or another to curb price growth, mainly through manipulations with the key rate.

— According to polls, inflation expectations of both businesses and individuals remain at a high level. In my opinion, annual inflation will be exactly what the Central Bank will allow it to be - that is, about 5-7%, - the analyst suggests.

Among the main events 20 Yulia Makarenko has been highlighting the introduction of a digital ruble for 23 years, which will simplify international payments, further untie the ruble from "unfriendly" currencies and contribute to the growth of demand in the domestic market.

There are resources and incentives

In the media, inflation is often called the main enemy of the financial cushion of citizens, says Artem Tuzov, director of the corporate finance department at IVA Partners Investment Company.

- With high inflation, we see headlines like this: "The return on deposits and OFZs is lower than inflation, the savings of citizens are melting." That's just low inflation indicates a decrease in the real purchasing power of citizens. Producers of goods and services are faced with a decrease in demand and simply cannot raise prices, and sometimes are forced to give discounts in order to maintain demand, the analyst notes.

According to the expert, all this can lead to losses for enterprises in the real sector of the economy and, as a result, to the loss of jobs by citizens.

“Therefore, the low inflation reported by the Ministry of Economic Development is not encouraging. At the same time, let's not forget that in February-March last year, prices for some types of goods and services rose significantly, and non-economic risks were included in prices. Now the Russian economy is getting used to sanctions and other external factors, and price cuts are justified as risks decrease, the expert believes.

It can be expected that inflation will increase in the second half of 2023 and reach the level of 5.3% by the end of 2023.

- The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has the resource to reduce the key rate to increase the purchasing power of corporations. And the Ministry of Finance can increase budget spending on infrastructure projects. It can be seen that inflation is under control and officials are engaged in its targeted regulation, - sums up Artem Tuzov.