World meat industry news

This year, agricultural production may decrease by 3.4%, according to the socio-economic development forecast for 2024 and for the planning period of 2025 and 2026, prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development. In 2024, the department expects agricultural production to grow by 2.3%, in 2025 and 2026 by 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively.

This year, in addition to weather factors, the dynamics of the industry will be influenced by the high base of 2022. In 2023, according to the forecast, the grain and legume harvest could be about 130 million tons, compared to a record 157.7 million tons last year. “The gross harvest of grain and leguminous crops in the future until 2026 will decrease to 133 million tons, which is 15.6% lower than the level of 2022 due to the high base effect against the backdrop of a record grain harvest,” the document says.

The Ministry of Economic Development also predicts a decrease in the sunflower harvest to approximately 16 million tons compared to 16.4 million tons in 2022, but by 2026 its production may increase to 16.7 million tons. Taking into account the high oilseed harvest last year, in 2023 The production of vegetable oils will increase by 3.9% to 8.2 million tons, the agency estimates. The increase in oil production by 2026 will be 10.2% relative to the level of 2022, as follows from the forecast.

The sugar beet harvest this year will also decrease - by 1.8% to 48 million tons, and sugar production may also decrease by 1.3% in the 2023 calendar year, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. However, in 2026, the department expects its production to increase by 6.9% compared to 2022, to 6.5 million tons. The growth will be associated with the expansion of the area under sugar beet and an increase in its yield, the forecast specifies.

The Ministry of Economic Development estimates the potential for the gross harvest of vegetables this year at 13.9 million tons—approximately at the 2022 level. In 2026, the production of vegetables and potatoes is projected at 14.3 million tons (+5.7% by 2022) and 18.6 million tons (-1.1%), respectively.

The ministry expects sustainable positive dynamics in the livestock industry. “The development of the livestock industry in the medium term will be influenced by technological modernization, increasing production efficiency, reducing production costs, developing logistics and entering new export markets,” says the Ministry of Economic Development. “By 2026, the production of livestock and poultry for slaughter (in live weight) will exceed 17 million tons. The growth of indicators in livestock farming will be ensured mainly by increasing production in the meat subcomplex.” Thus, this year the production of livestock and poultry for slaughter may increase by 2.2%, milk by 1%, eggs by 0.8%. In 2026, the increase relative to 2025 will be 1.5%, 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively, and compared to the level of 2022 - 6.8%, 1.9% and 2.2%.

To achieve the projected production volumes, the most important condition is still the preservation of favorable conditions for attracting investments, the Ministry of Economic Development draws attention, specifying that this is facilitated by a “wide range of government support measures.” The department also notes that with the increase in agricultural production volumes, the most important task is to find possible sales markets, taking into account the fact that the domestic market for most types of products is quite highly saturated. “In this regard, government support is being provided to expand access of Russian products to foreign markets, the main of which remains Southeast Asia, South Asia, China, as well as the markets of the Middle East and Africa,” the forecast says.

According to Rosstat, in current prices in January-July, agricultural production increased by 1.4% compared to the same period last year.

The Ministry of Agriculture, in the National Report on the results of the implementation of the state agricultural development program in 2022, predicts that the index of crop production at comparable prices in 2023 could amount to 93.3% of the level of last year, in livestock - 101.7%. In general, agricultural production may decrease by 3.4% compared to the previous year, which is also due to the high base for 2022. At the same time, the agricultural department estimated the grain harvest at 123 million tons, while the gross harvest forecast was recently raised to 130 million tons.

According to the forecast of the VEB Institute on the prospects for the development of the agro-industrial complex in the short and medium term, this year agricultural production will decrease by 3.3% due to a reduction in the gross grain harvest. At the same time, the production of oilseeds, sugar beets and vegetables will make a positive contribution to the agricultural production index. The forecast is also based on the continuation of the trend towards increasing livestock production.