The 2016 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher expected cattle slaughter and heavier carcass weights more than offset a lower pork production forecast. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released March 25, estimated that growth in pigs per litter in the first quarter was slower than expected and that producers expected to farrow fewer sows in March-May than previously intended. Coupled with slower-than-expected first quarter slaughter, forecast pork production is reduced. No change is made to broiler and turkey production.
The beef import forecast is raised and the export is reduced from last month based on recent trade data. The strength of the U.S. dollar continues to make the United States an attractive market for imports and constrains exports. Pork imports are raised on the strength of the dollar, but improving demand in several importing countries is providing support for increased exports. The broiler export forecast is unchanged from last month, but turkey exports are reduced on a slower pace of export recovery.
The cattle price forecast is reduced from last month on relatively weak demand and larger expected fed cattle supplies. Hog prices are lowered on weaker demand. No change is made to 2016 broiler and turkey prices. Egg prices are reduced on weaker demand.
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