World meat industry news

In the coming months, pork in wholesale prices will fall in price, but by December the price will rise again, recouping approximately half of the fall, NTech analysts predict. As for chicken meat, it will continue to rise in price, reaching levels prohibitive for use in meat processing by the end of the year, NTech reported.

There are a lot of factors influencing prices now and factors that may affect prices in the future, the company’s analysts note. They based their forecasts on a comparison of weekly dynamics for the main types of meat raw materials over the past 24 weeks (starting with an increase in prices for chicken in the 15th week of 2023 - from April 10 to 16), and came to the conclusion that price dynamics this year correlates with what was observed in the market in 2016, 2018 and 2021.

According to NTech analysts, in the medium term, the most likely scenario is a combination of 2016 and 2018. Based on this, they predict that by week 55 (November 1), live weight pigs could fall in price to RUB 115/kg, compared to RUB 135/kg at week 37 (September 11-17), but by week 48 ( December 1) will rise in price to 126 rubles/kg. Pork half-carcasses, according to analysts, will fall in price from 197 rubles/kg to 169 rubles/kg, but by December it will cost an average of 185 rubles/kg. The cost of ham may drop from 295 rubles/kg to 255 rubles/kg, but then increase in price to 277 rubles/kg. By the beginning of November, a shovel may cost 254 rubles/kg, having fallen in price from 290 rubles. in September, but by December its cost will increase to 268 rubles/kg.

Mechanically separated chicken meat, according to NTech calculations, may rise in price to 106 rubles/kg by November from 92 rubles/kg in the 37th week of this year, and by December to 109 rubles/kg. Chicken fillet, according to analysts, may rise in price to 390 rubles/kg and 392 rubles/kg from 364 rubles/kg.

Last week, TASS, citing the Ministry of Agriculture, reported that selling prices for pork producers decreased by 2% from August 21 to September 21. “The livestock industry will demonstrate steady growth in 2023, including in the pig breeding segment. The increase in production ensures a stable situation on the pork market,” the department noted. It clarified that due to the commissioning of new capacities in January-August, the production of pigs for slaughter in agricultural organizations increased by 5.9% to 3.6 million tons in live weight compared to the same period in 2022. The Ministry of Agriculture expects the positive dynamics to continue at the end of the year.

In the summer, industry analysts noted an increase in prices for pork and poultry meat; the Ministry of Agriculture explained this as a seasonal factor and an increase in demand. On August 9, the head of the department, Dmitry Patrushev, said that the ministry expects a decrease in meat prices in late summer and early autumn. At the end of August, the Ministry of Agriculture clarified that among the factors increasing the price of poultry meat is also an increase in production costs.

According to Rosstat, in the week from September 12 to 18, retail chicken prices increased by an average of 1.25%, compared to December 2022, an increase of 21.69%. The average retail price for pork (excluding boneless meat) increased by 0.41% over the week, compared to December - by 9.32%.