World natural disasters make a negative contribution to the supply of agricultural products. First of all, we are talking about a reduction in crop yields in the EU in future periods. But the influence of the heat is not yet a decisive factor for the dynamics of milk supply, the rate of decline of which is decreasing in relation to 2021 compared to previous months. Maxim Fasteev, a leading analyst at Infagro, wrote about this in his telegram channel.
According to him, this is supported by the fact that the price trend for raw materials expectedly stabilized in August.
“Taking into account the heat factor, the European Commission’s forecast for the supply of milk in 2022 remains at constant levels compared to the previous period (-0.6%),” the expert said. - As for the world trade in dairy products, the sensations are supported by figures. According to Freshagenda's calculations, in June world trade decreased by 6.4% compared to June of the previous year (in milk dry matter equivalent). In the first half of 2022, trade was 2.8% below 2021, which can be attributed to inflation, a slowdown in milk supply growth and, accordingly, lower availability for global exports. For 8 of the last 9 months of world trade, a decrease compared to the previous period is typical.
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