World meat industry news

According to the results of seven months of 2023, the agricultural production index amounted to 101.4% (for the same period last year - 107.4%). In July 2023, agricultural production for the first time in 2022-2023 showed a negative trend - the index amounted to 96.8%, in June it was at the level of 102.6%. In general, in January-July 2023, agricultural organizations increased the sale of the main types of products. For seven months, 35.6 million tons of grain (+54.8%), 7.6 million tons of livestock and poultry (+3.4%), 11.5 million tons of milk (+6.8%) were sold , 19.9 billion eggs (+3.8%).

Alexander Korbut, an independent grain market expert, says that the decline in agricultural production was recorded in 2021, so this phenomenon is not unique, but unpleasant, since a monthly decline may affect annual results. “The depth of the fall, if you look at last year, is due to the fact that the pace of harvesting in 2023 is lower. Accordingly, this also gave its result. This rate can increase, but the final result will most likely be from minus 1% to plus 1% <...>. The index of gross output in comparable prices at the end of the year may decrease, despite the high yields of grains, oilseeds and statements about growth in animal husbandry,” Korbut commented. This suggests that the current agricultural policy is not effective enough, he believes.

In 2022, President Vladimir Putin set the task of bringing the growth rate of the agro-industrial complex to 3% in the coming years. “I believe that we should set quite real, reasonable benchmarks, namely, in the coming years, domestic agriculture, food production and supporting industries should reach outstripping growth rates of more than 3% per year,” the head of state said.

Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the HSE Center for Market Research, is sure that there is nothing critical in the slowdown in growth rates: last year is a very high base for comparison due to high yields and good weather conditions. According to him, the decline in agricultural production in July is also not critical. It may be due to difficulties in the harvesting campaign, including due to the lack of fuel reported by the regions. “But I would not pay much attention to this as a sharply negative information occasion. Everything is going well now,” he adds.

In his opinion, the growth of agricultural production this year may be 2-3%. However, Ostapkovich draws attention to the fact that the issue is not in volumes, but in quality, in meeting solvent demand - these indicators are the main ones in the analysis of agricultural production. “Of course, we will not have such a harvest as last year, because the land, as a rule, does not produce a record harvest two or three times in a row,” commented Ostapkovich. However, according to his assessment, the fees will definitely be at a fairly good level in terms of self-sufficiency.

According to the forecast of the VEB Institute, agricultural production will decrease by 1.7% this year. It is explained, first of all, by the reduction in the grain crops harvest after the highest level in 2022. Last year, when a record harvest (157.7 million tons of grain) was harvested, agricultural production increased by 10.2%. This year, the VEB Institute predicts a grain harvest of 137 million tons, oilseeds - 28 million tons (29 million tons in 2022). Exports of agricultural products in 2023 will reach $46 billion ($41.6 billion in 2022).

“At the same time, a positive contribution to the index of agricultural production will be made by the collection of sugar beets, vegetables, fruits and berries, and an increase in livestock production,” the forecast says. According to him, the harvest of vegetables this year will remain at the level of 16 million tons, fruits and berries - 5 million tons, livestock and poultry production will increase from 16 million tons to 17 million tons a year earlier, milk - from 33 million tons to 34 million tons. .

Food production this year will grow by 5.5% against 1.6% a year ago, analysts at the VEB Institute estimate. In general, in the agro-industrial complex (agriculture and the food industry), production growth will be 2.4% against 5.4% in 2022. The VEB Institute also predicts that in 2024 agricultural production may grow by 2.4% (agro-industrial complex as a whole - by 2.1%), in 2025 - by 3.1% (by 2.7%). Grain harvest can be 132 million tons and 135 million tons, respectively.