World meat industry news

Based on the results of nine months of 2023, the agricultural production index amounted to 101.3%, as follows from Rosstat data. At the same time, a significant increase was recorded in September compared to the same month in 2022 - 12.7%. At the same time, the service previously noted negative dynamics in agricultural production: in August - 93.7%, in July - 97.1%. In January-September last year, the agricultural production index amounted to 111.7%.

The volume of agricultural production in September 2023 in current prices, according to preliminary estimates by Rosstat, reached 2.1 trillion rubles. During the period from January to September 2023, products worth almost 6.2 trillion rubles were produced. In the first nine months of 2023, agricultural organizations sold 53.4 million tons of grain (plus 32.4%), 9.8 million tons of livestock and poultry in live weight (plus 3.1%), 14.7 million tons of milk (plus 6.3%), 25.5 billion eggs (plus 2.4%).

Also, according to Rosstat, as of October 1, grain and legumes (except corn) in agricultural organizations were threshed on 87.3% of the sown area (in 2022 - 92.4%). Grain threshed (in initially registered weight) - 83.4 million tons (88.7% of the result for the same period last year). “Taking into account the summer death of crops and the use of part of them for feed purposes, according to calculations, it remains to remove about 11.9% of the sown area of grain and leguminous crops (without corn). Fiber flax in agricultural organizations has been harvested from 81.8% of the area, a year ago by this time 72.9% of the crops were harvested,” Rosstat reported. As of October 1, sunflower harvesting was carried out on 38.9% of the sown area (15% in 2022); 4.8 million tons of sunflower were threshed (an increase of 2.5 times). During the reporting period, sugar beets were harvested from 35.6% of the sown area (31% in 2022), 15.2 million tons were accumulated (plus 23.7%).

The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) forecasts an increase in agricultural production for the year of 1-2%, although initially IKAR believed that 2023 would end with negative dynamics due to a significant reduction in grain and oilseed yields, which would somewhat compensate for the growth in livestock farming. But now it is clear that the decline in grains is not so strong, and the oilseed harvest is approximately at the level of last year, explains ICAR General Director Dmitry Rylko. “The situation is being corrected by late crops: a record harvest of sunflower, soybeans and corn is expected. Taking into account the situation in livestock farming, all this together gives the expectation of a slight increase at the end of the year,” he commented.

The director of the Center for Market Research at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, Georgiy Ostapkovich, said at the end of August that, according to his estimates, the growth of agricultural production in 2023 will be 2-3%, and now adheres to the same forecast. “Agriculture is a fairly seasonal industry and numbers (production figures) can change over a period of time. But, based on the general rhetoric of the Ministry of Agriculture and other experts related to agriculture, it seems to me that production is growing by 2-3%. More likely, even by 2%,” Ostapkovich added. So, although the wheat harvest in 2023 will be lower than last year’s, other agricultural crops and livestock farming will allow it to remain in positive dynamics.

However, Ostapkovich points out, it is not so important what kind of growth - 1%, 2% or 3% - agricultural production shows, the main thing is that the industry is developing and continues to show positive results. “Interest is a statistical effect, and it is sometimes increased by the monetary component: that is, inflation goes up, and output in monetary terms increases, so there is nominal growth […]. Looking at growth rates is a complex process, but the main thing is that there is no failure,” commented Ostapkovich.

Independent grain market expert Alexander Korbut previously said that by the end of the year the dynamics of agricultural production will range from minus 1% to plus 1%. Now his grades remain almost the same. “I would like to pay attention to how sales volumes have increased - they are significantly higher, and also how the cleaning is going. Therefore, despite good gross indicators, I do not think that we will see a significant increase in gross agricultural output. In any case, the effect of last year’s high base will be in effect,” Korbut said. He also added that the results for the year may be affected by the inclusion of new regions in the statistics, but so far they have not been taken into account.