World meat industry news

In June, annual inflation accelerated to 8.59% compared to 8.3% in May. According to Rosstat, consumer prices increased by 0.64% over the month. Food prices rose by 0.63% compared to the previous month and by 9.81% year on year. Including prices for apples increased by 10.2%, carrots became more expensive by 6.3%, lemons - by 5%, beets - by 4.3%, onions - by 4.1%. At the same time, prices for tomatoes decreased by 13.3%, white cabbage fell by 10.1%, cucumbers - by 7.7%, bananas - by 2.3%, garlic - by 1.9%, grapes - by 1.8%.

For price dynamics in Russia, the problems of the labor market, rising costs of logistics, high volatility of the ruble exchange rate, and the complication of cross-border payments remain relevant - pressure on prices from production costs remains, says Daria Tarasenko, senior analyst at the Center for Economic Forecasting of Gazprombank. “The structure of economic growth in Russia continues to change, these changes are accompanied by a redistribution of resources and goods between economic agents, which is reflected in increased inflation for us,” the expert told Agroinvestor. She expects that consumer price growth will reach its local peak in 2024 in July - this will be associated with a one-time increase in regulated tariffs for the population. “As before, we expect that in the base scenario by the end of 2024, average annual inflation will be 8%,” the expert added.

In April, representatives of the Bank of Russia stated that the peak of annual inflation in 2024 is expected in the second quarter, after which price growth will decline from the third quarter. Thus, such dynamics were generally expected, says Vadim Shamin, Deputy Director of the Retail Business Department of Svoy Bank JSC. In particular, taking into account the fact that, along with some food products, services that are in demand among vacationers in the summer have become more expensive - air tickets and hotels, in general prices for transport trips and vacation packages, etc. That is, here it has a greater impact The location is seasonal, the expert noted in a conversation with Agroinvestor.

According to him, now all attention is focused on the decision on the key rate, which the Bank of Russia will make at its meeting on July 26. “Judging by the rhetoric of the regulator’s leadership and the latest inflation statistics, raising the rate to 18% is no longer an unlikely scenario. Further tightening of monetary conditions should help combat inflation. Also, a new medium-term inflation forecast will be published at the end of July,” the expert says. He recalled that earlier in June the regulator noted that a sustained reduction in inflation would require a longer period, and the plan to achieve a reduction in inflation to the target value of about 4% was postponed to 2025. It is important that the Bank of Russia does not change the inflation target. Based on the results of the meeting at the end of July, it will become more clear what will happen to inflation in the second half of the year, Shamin concluded.