In July, annual inflation dropped to 15.1% compared to June, when it was 15.9%. In addition, food prices continued to decline at a high pace: by 8.1% after SAAR's 8.4% m/m in June. This is stated in the Bulletin of the Research and Forecasting Department of the Bank of Russia “What do the trends say. Macroeconomics and Trends”.
The main driver is the seasonally faster reduction in the price of fruits and vegetables, although its scale has somewhat decreased. The decline in prices for fruits and vegetables has been going on since April and has already compensated for the growth recorded in March (-18% in April-July against +13% m/m in March, seasonally adjusted).
Excluding fruits and vegetables, food prices declined by 0.2% m/m SAAR. This was caused by a decrease in prices for certain items with a high share in the consumer basket (some meat products, sugar, tea, coffee, pasta and cereals) and a slowdown in price growth for a wide range of food products.
The distribution median, calculated for the disaggregated components of food products, fell to 2.4 from 7.0% m/m SAAR in June. In many respects, such dynamics is facilitated by a stable domestic supply of food products and the likely reduction or stabilization of costs after their growth in the second quarter.
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