World meat industry news

Inflationary expectations of the population for the year ahead in August increased to 12.0% (+1.2 percentage points against July), but remained lower than in June (-0.4 percentage points against June). Observed inflation in August was declining for the third month in a row, its estimate was 20.5% (-1.7 percentage points against July). Long-term (three years ahead) inflation expectations of the population increased slightly, but remained significantly below the levels of early 2022. This is stated in the commentary of the Bank of Russia "Inflation expectations and consumer sentiment", writes The DairyNews with reference to the press service of the organization.

The consumer sentiment index rose in August, hitting the highest since May 2018. At the same time, the indexes of the current state and expectations included in it moved in different directions. Estimates of the current situation have recovered to the levels of the second half of 2021 - early 2022. At the same time, respondents' expectations regarding economic prospects worsened for the first time since April, although their estimates remained close to the local July maximum.

Price expectations of enterprises for three months in advance continued to decline in August. The main reason is the continuing slowdown in cost growth, largely due to the significant strengthening of the ruble in the second quarter of this year. The average growth rate of selling prices expected by enterprises in the next three months amounted to 3.5% in annual terms.

In late July-early August, professional analysts' inflation forecasts continued to decline. According to a July poll of analysts by the Interfax agency, the consensus forecast for inflation at the end of 2022 decreased to 13.6% (-1.0 p.p. compared to June), at the end of 2023 - to 6.0% (-0.5 pp by June). According to a survey conducted at the end of July by Reuters, the inflation forecast for 2022 was 13.4% (-1.1 percentage points compared to June). Analysts also lowered their inflation forecast for 2024. According to a macroeconomic survey conducted by the Bank of Russia in July, inflation in 2024 will slow down to 4.2% (-0.8 percentage points against June).

According to the Bank of Russia, short-term disinflationary risks have increased. However, pro-inflationary risks remain significant and still dominate over the medium term. According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, taking into account the ongoing monetary policy, annual inflation will be 12-15% in 2022, will decrease to 5-7% in 2023 and return to 4% in 2024.