World meat industry news

The negative dynamics in the Russian economy has slowed down after a sharp deterioration in March. At the same time, in the face of declining imports of goods and services, there are still risks of a further reduction in production as stocks of raw materials, materials and components are exhausted, it is too early to call the reduced price growth rates sustainable, and inflationary pressure remains high, writes  the Bulletin of the Research and Forecasting Department. Bank of Russia.

The significant strengthening of the ruble, coupled with a decrease in consumer activity and inflationary expectations, led to a rapid slowdown in consumer price growth in April-May. However, it is too early to call this trend sustainable. In April-May, the Russian economy experienced relative stabilization, reflecting the initial adaptation of economic agents to dramatically changed conditions, primarily financial ones, the document notes, while emphasizing that structural changes in the economy have not yet occurred, and in the context of the continued deep decline in imports of goods and services remain significant risks of further reduction in production as the stocks of raw materials, materials and components are exhausted.

- At the same time, the dynamics of the most stable indicators of consumer price growth, such as trend inflation, median price growth and core inflation indicators, indicate that headline inflation pressures are still high, albeit declining. Therefore, the current lower growth rate of the consumer price index looks unsustainable. As the effect of one-time disinflationary factors is exhausted, price growth may rise again, the authors of the study add.

In April, annual inflation rose to 17.8%. An additional factor in the rapid slowdown in price growth in April was the overshoot of consumer price increases relative to producer prices in March. At the same time, upward pressure on prices from producer costs in the coming months will offset the disinflationary impact of lower demand. In May, weekly consumer price growth slowed even more, causing annual inflation to decline to 17.5% as of May 20.