According to the forecast of the Agroexport center subordinate to the Ministry of Agriculture, by 2024, the growth in exports of agricultural products from Russia will be 18.8%. In monetary terms, deliveries may increase by $6.98 billion compared to the level of 2021, when the volume of exports amounted to $37.1 billion. This should be facilitated by the implementation of 395 industry-specific export projects, the investment in which is estimated at 1.2 trillion rubles.
The main investments - about 73% of this amount - fall on four industries: food - 21.1% (255 billion rubles), deep processing of grain - 19.8% (240 billion rubles), meat - 16% (194 billion rubles) and oil and fat — 15.6% (189 billion rubles). They mainly specialize in the production of high value-added products, Agroexport notes. Center analysts estimated that the average implementation period for all projects is about 3.5 years.
The projects in the field of deep grain processing are characterized by the highest capital intensity, the center notes. The average investment cost of an export project there exceeds 16 billion rubles, while the average cost for the entire sample of export projects is estimated at 3.1 billion rubles. The least capital-intensive projects are implemented in the food and fish industries: investments in one project average less than 2 billion rubles.
The Agroexport review also states that the oil and fat industry can make the greatest contribution to increasing the export of agricultural products until 2024. The increase in its export potential is estimated at more than $3 billion, which is 41.1% of the total projected increase in export earnings. In second place is the grain industry, the additional contribution of which by the specified date may amount to $1.8 billion (25.9%). Deliveries of meat products may increase by $718 million (10.3%), food and processing industry products - by $527 million (7.6%).
The government will additionally allocate 120 billion rubles for the rapid development of transport infrastructure and support for farmers
At the same time, the most export-oriented industries are fish, grain, oil and fat industries, deep processing of grain and oilseeds. For them, the projected share of export earnings in the framework of the implementation of projects on average exceeds 50%. The main share of projected revenue in other industries - meat, dairy, food - will primarily be formed in the domestic market and, to a lesser extent, due to export activities, analysts say.
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