Against the backdrop of a depreciation of the dollar from a record 120 to the current 75 rubles, importers are already reducing prices, but until the goods purchased by suppliers during the rush demand are sold out, one should not expect a sharp drop in prices, the executive director of the capital market department at Univer Capital told Izvestia » Artem Tuzov.
According to the chief economist of the Expert RA agency Anton Tabakh, in the current wave of inflation, the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar is the main factor in increasing prices for narrow commodity groups, such as medicines, food products, imported components for production, and so on. “There have already been reports of a decrease in prices for a number of goods that soared in February-March, so we can expect this trend to continue,” the expert noted.
At the same time, logistics costs for importers have grown significantly, which is included in the cost of products, added the bank "Saint Petersburg". They admitted that a price reduction is possible, but it is unlikely that it will be proportional to the reduction in value in accordance with the movement of the exchange rate.
The PSB expects that in April-May the value of the dollar may drop to 60-65 rubles, provided that the Central Bank does not change the current restrictions on foreign exchange transactions. However, excessive strengthening of the exchange rate is unprofitable for exporters and the budget, recalled the chief analyst of Sovcombank Kirill Kononov. According to his expectations, the government will begin to lift foreign exchange restrictions.
In the medium term, as imports recover and restrictions are eased, the US currency will appreciate. In "Freedom Finance" rise in the range of 80-100 is considered in a conservative scenario. Otkritie Investments believes that support from the export of energy resources and metals will still weaken and the ruble will gradually return to a fairly wide range from 95 to 105 per dollar.
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