The Poultry Forum with the participation of industry experts was held on October 18-19, 2023 in Istanbul, Turkey, as part of the international conference “Leaders of the Agro-Industrial Complex. Results of the year 2023.” Forecasts and trends were announced.
“A sharp geopolitical turn is forcing the domestic poultry industry to look for new footholds, develop its genetics, look for new partners, and in such times it is especially valuable to hear the opinion of leading experts,” noted Dmitry Anosov, director of the poultry division of the VIK Group of Companies, and moderator of the forum.
In his report, Director General of the National Union of Poultry Farmers Sergei Lakhtyukhov presented the results of 2022, as well as forecasts and trends for the period 2023–2024. Last year was a successful year for the industry with significant growth: for the first time the threshold of 7 million tonnes of poultry production for slaughter in live weight was reached across all farms. At the same time, poultry farming continues to be one of the leading industries in the export of poultry products.
Based on the results of 2022, Russia entered the TOP 10 exporting countries, occupying about 2.5% of the world market. Compared to 2019, exports increased by almost 70%, while imports decreased by more than 20%. The speaker noted that Russia is confidently moving towards full provision of its own hatching eggs.
The downward trend in imports continues this year, where over 7 months there was a reduction in imports by 35%. Since 2019, the volume of imports of chicken hatching eggs has almost halved. At the same time, the demand for poultry products is growing in all segments. Thanks to the government's efforts to stimulate the consumption of quality products, purchasing power increases. In addition, the expert noted that several investment projects are planned aimed at expanding poultry farming sites.
“The global meat market will grow by about 3% next year, despite the fact that this growth is limited by inflation and rising costs, its drivers will be the poultry and pork market,” said Sergei Pavlyuchenko, CEO of the information and analytical portal Meatinfo.
According to him, feed prices are planned to be reduced. This will be possible thanks to countries such as the Russian Federation, where the production of all types of grains is growing rapidly, productivity is increasing and new technologies are being mastered.
The main risks are outbreaks of animal diseases, as the speaker emphasized. Over the next few years, the annual growth rate will average 1.3% (in 2024 it will be about 3%), mainly due to the recovery in Southeast Asia, especially in China. Global meat production is projected to reach 345.4 million tons, with the meat market valued at $1.345 trillion by 2029. The most favorable forecasts concern the production of poultry meat, where the volume is expected to reach 165.8 tons. Improvements in feed quality, selection, demand and profitability are expected due to more efficient production cycles.
Exports are forecast to increase by about 3% in 2024. The growth in pork exports will be 32%, beef – 23%, chicken – 40%, lamb and turkey – approximately 5%.
The Russian poultry market is expected to experience moderate growth in production, as well as an increase in household incomes, export sales and consumption. However, market saturation, increased logistics costs and the weakening of the ruble may be a limiting factor.
“Data on production volume: 7.1 million tons are expected this year, a little more next year. The market is saturated, pork is beginning to “eat away” a significant part of the poultry meat market share. Today, the difference in price between poultry and pork is about 10%,” the expert said.
Executive Director of the VIC Group of Companies Sergei Kasparyants said that meat production in the world will continue to grow, and by 2032 its consumption is expected to increase by 20%. He also noted that the EAEU countries are the largest producers of meat products and are among the top 5 countries in the world, and Russia ranks second in the world in the production of turkey meat.