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All news / Experts announced meat production forecasts: pork remains the main driver, poultry maintains stability

  • 25 Jan 2023, 10:49

The industrial production of pork in Russia in 2023 will increase by 5-7% compared to last year, poultry meat - by 2%, and the decline in the beef segment will continue. Such assessments were given by the leaders of industry unions.pork remains the main driver, poultry maintains stability

Pork: grain support

According to Rosstat, agricultural organizations produced 12.9 million tons of meat (of all main types) in live weight in 2022, which is 4.9% more than in the previous year. The main driver was the production of pork - 6.9%, up to 5.3 million tons. The National Union of Pig Breeders cites similar data. At the same time, the number of pigs increased by 7.1% by December 2022, to 25.67 million heads.

“The industrial sector gave an increase in meat production by almost 7%, and due to the reduction in household plots and peasant farms, it turned out, according to estimates, more than 5%,” said Yury Kovalev, general director of the union. The sector was supported by an increase in consumption by almost 6-7%, including due to lower prices (by 5-7% in wholesale) and support from the population. “We believe that in 2023 the growth trend will continue, it will be comparable to the dynamics of 2022,” Kovalev believes.

He recalled that the level of profitability of pig breeding, after a sharp drop in the first half of 2022 (due to the growth of the dollar and the subsequent rise in the cost of capital goods, etc.), returned to the level of 2021 in the second half of the year. In many respects, this was influenced by a decrease in prices for a key feed component - grain. The union expects that this year the situation will continue and the commissioning of new production capacities in the pig sector will continue.

The head of the National Meat Association (NMA), Sergey Yushin, also expects an increase in pig production at the level of 5-7% in 2023.

Bird: within reach

Birds produced 6.5 million tons last year, which is 4.9% more than the previous year. The livestock at the same time increased by 3.1%, to 468.2 million heads, according to Rosstat.

“We expect that while maintaining measures aimed at maintaining the purchasing power of the population, in 2023 the demand for poultry meat will continue to grow. And taking into account the investments of producers in the modernization and expansion of capacities, we still estimate the increase in production this year at the level of 2%,” Sergey Lakhtyukhov, general director of the National Union of Poultry Breeders, told

Average wholesale and consumer prices for broilers did not increase last year, and now poultry meat remains the most affordable type of meat. It accounts for almost 50% of the consumption of all types of meat, Lakhtyukov notes.

Moreover, in the turkey segment, the dynamics of production growth is predicted to be higher than in the chicken meat segment, due to the low base. According to the NMA, in 2023, the increase in turkey will be up to 10%.

Beef: a puzzle for investors

Beef production, according to Rosstat, last year decreased by 3.5%, amounting to 1.04 million tons. And as the General Director of the National Union of Beef Producers Roman Kostyuk emphasizes, “we should not look at the reduction in meat production, but at the reduction of the production base - the number of cattle (cattle), and it has been declining in the country for the past five years.” According to Rosstat, the number of cattle in agricultural organizations as of December 1, 2022 amounted to 7.92 million heads, or 0.5% less than a year earlier. Including cows, it became 0.2% less - 3.21 million heads of cows.

This year, there are no prerequisites for changing this trend, according to the union. “This is influenced by a whole range of factors. But the most important thing is that there are almost no new investors in this sector,” Kostyuk told According to him, against the background of the fact that large holdings are not yet planning a noticeable increase in livestock, the herd is being reduced at the expense of household plots and farms. And the long-awaited cooperation between large and small farms is not happening yet. Although recently in Buryatia a local large processor announced its intention to build a system of work with local farmers, Kostyuk noted.

Lamb: not a valuable fur?

The production of sheep and goat meat in 2022 decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, amounting to 39 thousand tons, according to the latest data from Rosstat. At the same time, the number of sheep and goats increased by 1%, to 3.1 million heads.

But in general, over the past seven years, the number of sheep in Russia has decreased by 4 million heads, or by 16%, Mikhail Yegorov, general director of the National Union of Sheep Breeders, said at the forum "Development of sheep breeding in the North Caucasus", TASS reports. At the same time, sheep breeding is actively developing in certain regions, for example, in Dagestan.

According to Egorov, livestock losses are recorded in wool and wool-meat sheep breeding due to lower profitability compared to meat areas. “We need a strategy for the development of sheep breeding in Russia,” the head of the union emphasized at the forum.


The expected increase in the output of pork and poultry in 2023 gives reason to expect that prices for the consumer will remain stable, Yushin emphasizes.

According to the NMA, Russia ranks 4th in the world in terms of meat production (after China, the USA and Brazil), and the limit for the growth of the industry in the Russian Federation has not been reached. In 2022, Russians increased their meat consumption to a record 78 kg per person per year, largely due to the affordability of meat, but there is great potential outside the country. “In the next 20 years, another 100 million tons of meat must be produced on the planet. Who will produce it?, Yushin draws attention. “Russia's potential must be used to the maximum.”