The export of agricultural products from Russia in 2019 could be reduced by 4%, in value terms - up to $ 24 billion, predicts the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies
The main reason for the reduction in exports is a decrease in the volume of deliveries abroad of grain due to a decrease in its gross collection in 2018. Food imports will also continue to decline, and by the end of this year, it may decrease by 4.5% to $ 28 billion, says ICARD Director Dimitry Rylko.
Last year, agroexport in monetary terms amounted to almost $ 25.1 billion, and imports are estimated at $ 29.3 billion. Thus, Russia is close to a zero trade balance, and this trend will continue this year.
The largest exporting countries, including the United States, the European Union, China, Brazil and others, are the largest importers of food. Therefore, Russia should not strive to completely replace the supply of foreign agricultural products with goods of its own production. The task of increasing exports cannot be solved in isolation from the country's overall trade balance. The state should consider whether it is necessary to force self-sufficiency, because in many sectors imports help exports to develop. In addition, the saturation of the market with its own products leads to lower prices and profitability, and this should also be taken into account, Rylko added.