Global pig meat production is forecast to decrease by 1 per cent on the year to 109.3 million tonnes in 2016, according to latest global outlook report from the USDA.
Furthermore, the latest forecast is 2 per cent lower than October’s estimate as the outlook for the world’s largest pig meat producer, China, has changed. Having predicted an increase year on year in October, USDA now forecasts a decrease of 3 per cent year on year, to 53.5 million tonnes. The reduction in output is thought to be due to poor producer profitability last year, a slowdown in China’s economic growth and issues surrounding its environmental regulations.
EU pig meat production is expected to exceed October’s forecast by 1 per cent to 23.2 million tonnes but is still down 1 per cent on 2015 as low pig prices caused a contraction to the EU pig herd. US production is forecast to increase further by 2 per cent on the year to a record level of 11.3 million tonnes. Output from Russia and Brazil is also forecast to increase, by 3 per cent and 2 per cent respectively.
Once again, global pork exports are forecast to increase year on year by 6 per cent in 2016, to 7.6 million tonnes. The majority of the growth this year is driven by an increase of shipments from the EU and US.
US exports are forecast to increase by 5 per cent on the year to 2.4 million tonnes. EU exports are expected to outpace the US for the second year running, increasing by 9 per cent to 2.6 million tonnes.
Shipments of pig meat to the world’s largest importer, Japan, are expected to increase by 4 per cent on the year to 1.3 million tonnes. Furthermore, demand for imported pig meat from China, South Korea and Mexico is also expected to increase sharply, pushing total global imports up 8 per cent year on year.