Global pork production is expected to increase by 1% in 2019, reaching 114.6 million tons based on the continued expansion in China and in the United States, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) latest forecast shows.
USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service's report "Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade" forecasts that the pork production at a global level is almost in line with population growth.
China is expected to witness a larger growth in pork production due to a larger sow herd and improvements in productivity boost in pig supply. On the other hand, USDA warns about the impact on prices and movement that the African Swine Fever (ASF) had this year, which resulted in a slower rate of expansion relative to last year.
Meanwhile, it is expected that the EU production will decline marginally as lower hog prices and higher feed costs will drive a small reduction in the breeding herd.
Global pork exports are also expected to increase by 3% in 2019 based on a global strong demand. USDA also said that the EU will probably remain the top exporter, buoyed by higher demand in Asia, especially China. The US will occupy the second position in the world's leading pork exporters.
Brazil's exports are expected to rebound as growth to China and Hong Kong offset the loss of previous top market Russia. Import demand will also strengthen in Latin America, as favorable prices and changing preferences boost per-capita pork consumption.
The report also says that Mexico’s imports are forecast 5% higher and Colombia 29% higher on robust demand. South Korea’s imports will decline as near-record expected imports during 2018 are expected to lead to high stocks.