World meat industry news

The dynamics of sales of Russian food retail in monetary terms in 2023 will slow down sharply and amount to 5.6%, such a forecast was made by Mikhail Burmistrov, CEO of Infoline-Analytics, at the VkusVill Suppliers Forum. In his speech, he recalled that in 2022, the turnover of food retail trade grew by a record 13.4% and for the first time exceeded 20 trillion rubles. (in view of VAT). In 2021, growth was at the level of 11.8%.

Burmistrov expects product sales in hypermarkets and supermarkets to decline in physical terms in 2023. According to him, consumers have lost interest in this format and do not see the point in driving a car to a hypermarket, since now everything can be bought in a convenience store and online. He also drew attention to the fact that the X5 Group completely stopped the development of the Karusel network. At the same time, the expert believes that small retail formats will continue to develop in the country, which includes hard discounters focused on low prices and convenience stores.

At the same time, the Russian FMCG sales market will continue to consolidate this year: if at the end of 2022 the 10 largest chains in this segment occupied a share of 38.5%, then in 2023 it will reach 41.9%, Infoline-analytics predicts . This will be due to the fact that the market itself will slow down, and the largest players will continue to increase their share due to an effective business model, correct pricing and consumer loyalty, Burmistrov emphasized.

As for online food sales, this segment will grow by 45-49% in 2023, to 910-930 billion rubles. The share of online food retail sales will increase from 3% to 4.2%. At the end of last year, the leaders of the E-Grocery segment, according to Infoline-analytics, were Sbermarket (with a share of 14.1%), VkusVill (12.6%), Samokat (12.4%) , X5 Group (10.7%).

The trends that will be typical for FMCG retail in 2023, Burmistrov called the growth of the E-grocery segment, the development of discounters and EDLP models (a pricing strategy that promises the buyer a low price on an ongoing basis, and not only during promotions and sales - note of "Agroinvestor") and CPFR (when the parties jointly plan the main actions within the supply chain, including production, supply of raw materials, sale of goods to the end consumer - note of "Agroinvestor"). Also, retailers, Burmistrov believes, in the near future will focus on efficiency: engage in digitalization and automation, direct imports (in particular, alcohol and the fresh category), personalization of promotions and omnichannel marketing.

“The food market in any, even the most difficult economic conditions, feels quite well. And this is especially evident in those moments when consumers are worried, experiencing stress. How do we deal with stress? Of course, I want to please myself, buy something tasty, something new, please my loved ones, ”summed up Burmistrov.