In the 1st quarter of the current year the export of Russian agricultural products rose sharply and closed the gap on imports, said Wednesday the General Director of the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko.
“The first quarter shows a very strong growth of exports – by 19%. Imports, however, also grew, but at a much smaller interval. And as you can see, the volume of our exports gradually approaching the volume of our imports,” Rylko said at an online conference.
According to the data presented ICARUS in the 1st quarter of 2020 the export of agricultural products from Russia amounted to $6,361 billion against $5,323 billion in the 1st quarter of 2019.
The largest importer of Russian food is China ($993 million), followed by Turkey ($867 million) and Egypt ($484 million). Compared to the 1st quarter of 2019, the three leaders has not changed, but a year earlier, the volume of exports to these countries were significantly less ($681 million, $595 million and $366 million, respectively).
In the commodity structure of exports, the largest category in the January-March steel oilseed and vegetable oil ($1,924 billion against $1,307 billion the previous year). In second place were grains ($1,915 billion in the 1st quarter of 2020, up from $1.88 billion a year earlier). In third place were fish and seafood ($979 million compared to $942 million). Other export commodities had $1,544 bn ($1,195 billion a year ago).
“There is, of course, the question of what will happen next. I suspect that is likely the result COVID-19 we will have a small drawdown of other export – products deep processing, there may be a slight decrease,” predicts manufacturers.
Import of agricultural products in the Russian Federation in the 1st quarter of 2020 amounted to $7.5 billion versus $7.2 billion a year earlier.
By the end of 2019 exports amounted to $25 billion (a decrease of 0.4% amid a fall in grain supplies), import – $29 billion (up 0.8% amid devaluation of the ruble).
In the structure of imports last year of $5.1 billion deliveries of fruits and nuts, $3 billion – drinks, $3 billion – milk, eggs and honey, $1.9 billion of meat, $1.8 billion vegetables $1.8 billion of fish and seafood, $3.9 billion – oil and oilseeds, $2.4 billion coffee, tea and cocoa.
“We believe that in the coming years, a significant reduction in a number of imports”, – said Rylko.
The exports will continue to grow. “Domestic demand for food and so briskly did not grow due to the fact that incomes in recent years did not grow, and was, at best, stable. And now, in the context of the economic crisis in the world and the decline of production, the GDP decline in Russia, we think that domestic demand for food also will not grow. Export acts so serious “outlet” for the Russian manufacturers”, – said the expert.