Over the nine months of this year, the increase in pork production in agricultural organizations amounted to 6.1%, and in the industry as a whole - 5%. “For the year as a whole, we believe that the figure will be more than 6%, this is a very large increase,” said the General Director of the National Union of Pig Breeders (NSU) Yuri Kovalev at the XV International Scientific and Practical Conference “Pig Breeding-2023. From adaptation mode to further sustainable development.” Next year, the growth in pork production will continue: according to NSS forecasts, by 2026, production volumes at the largest enterprises will increase in total by 600 thousand tons in slaughter weight or 800 thousand tons in live weight.
The work of the industry in the new year will be influenced by three main factors: the epizootic situation, demand from the population and processors, as well as exports - especially the factor of the opening of the Chinese market for pork supplies from Russia. Also, a very important factor for pig farmers is the grain market situation. “In 2022, we started working with the same grain prices, and starting from the second half of last year, when it became clear what harvest was to be harvested, grain prices dropped by 30-40%, creating a favorable basis for livestock farming,” he recalled. Kovalev. This allowed pork producers to reduce production costs from 90-95 rubles/kg in the first half of last year to 75 rubles/kg in the second and 85 rubles/kg on average last year. According to him, the average cost for 2023 will be lower and will be 75-80 rubles/kg.
Kovalev assesses this year as quite good for pig farming. The EBITDA margin of pig farms is at the level of the last five years, primarily due to the grain market conditions. Also, over the past seven years, pork consumption has increased significantly: if in 2015 the figure was at the level of 23.5 kg/person, then in 2023, according to the NSS forecast, it will be a record 30 kg/person. One of the reasons for this is the availability of this type of meat. In general, the average price for pork in Russia over the 11 months of this year increased by only 6% compared to last year and has just caught up with the price of 2021.
Our country has one of the lowest prices in the world for pork in currency terms, and this allowed us to export more than 200 thousand tons of pig products in terms of slaughter weight over the nine months of this year. “We exported live pigs, offal, and bacon,” Kovalev said. “For the year as a whole, we expect that the export of pig products in terms of slaughter weight will amount to 250 thousand tons, this is over 5% of our production and a significantly higher figure than in 2022.” Russia is already among the top 10 global suppliers of pig products, and in the coming years it plans to enter the top 5. “This is a completely achievable goal - for this we need to ship 350-400 thousand tons of products to foreign markets,” Kovalev concluded.