World meat industry news

The European Union is on the path of reducing the production and consumption of meat. Germany has reduced its production for the sixth year in a row. And the European Commission predicts a reduction in beef production this year by 1.6%. In Russia, on the contrary, meat production is increasing. And for some of its types, consumption is also increasing. Some are not ready to change their dietary patterns for the sake of climate policy or a progressive green agenda. So, in Italy they directly refuse to switch to synthetic meat, which, according to environmental lobbyists, does not affect the warming of the planet at all. The fight against natural meat in the world promises the Russian Federation the opportunity to become a major exporter of meat products as well.

In many EU countries, there is a systematic reduction in animal husbandry. Thus, Germany last year reduced meat production by 8.1%. Poultry meat production decreased by 2.9%, while pork and beef production fell by 9.8% and 8.2%, respectively. The process of livestock reduction will continue in 2023. According to the forecast of the European Commission, beef production in the European Union will decrease by 1.6% this year. In many countries, products with artificial proteins or their substitutes are being introduced.

At the same time, not all Europeans are ready to change the traditional diet for ideological reasons. For example, the Italian government has approved a bill banning the use of laboratory-produced food and animal feed. If the proposal is passed by parliament, Italian industry will not be allowed to produce food or feed "from cell cultures or tissues derived from vertebrates," the bill says. Violation of the rules can lead to a fine of up to 60 thousand euros. The bill also provides that factories where violations occur could be closed and manufacturers could lose their right to receive government funding for up to three years. The Italian bill officially aims to protect the country's agri-food heritage. "Laboratory products, in our opinion, do not guarantee the quality, well-being and protection of our culture, our traditions," said Italian Minister of Agriculture Francesco Lollobrigida. Local lobbyists supported the authorities' actions against "synthetic food". The ban on "meat from a test tube", according to Italians, is necessary to protect home production "from attacks by multinational companies." However, this outraged many organizations that advocate the development of "cellular" agricultural products.

Synthetic meat is a growing sector in many countries. For example, in 2022, the Netherlands announced the allocation of 60 million euros by the state for the research and development of synthetic meat. Similar projects are quickly finding funding in other European countries.

There are signs of a decline in traditional animal husbandry in Asia as well. Thus, Singapore became the first country to officially allow the production of synthetic meat. Selected "in vitro" meat products have been safety tested by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

The main explanation for why the world should switch to artificial meat is concern for the climate and greenhouse gas emissions from animal husbandry. “Studies show that cultured (synthetic) meat can generate 92% fewer emissions than regular beef. It can also reduce meat-related air pollution by 94% and use 90% less land, making room for more sustainable farming practices,” according to the Good Food Institute. This non-profit organization actively promotes the transition from the consumption of conventional meat to synthetic.

And in the future, Europe is threatened with a reduction in meat production due to the struggle of environmentalists and social activists with farmers.

The UN estimates that livestock contribute up to 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions each year. "The digestion and waste from cows and other ruminants produces methane, a gas that traps heat in the atmosphere 80 times more than carbon dioxide," Reuters cited their findings. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that cattle are the main source of methane emissions from agriculture, which reached 142 million tons in 2022, three times the emissions from the oil sector. However, from their own data it follows that wetland systems produce the most methane, almost 200 million tons per year.

However, to reduce atmospheric methane by 30% by 2030, EU countries are discussing cows, not swamps. For example, the EU is trying to negotiate a reduction in the number of farms in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from animal husbandry, which will lead to a reduction in the number of livestock.

Experts believe that in the near future this will result in losses for the agricultural industry and the farmers themselves. The profits of the 40 largest livestock producers will be reduced by $ 24 billion by 2030, Bloomberg reports citing the Fairr (Farm Animal Investment Risk & Return) group of international agricultural investors. Experts of this group expect that the profits of companies will decrease in the range of 7-11%. “Cows are the most emitting livestock, so beef and dairy companies are more subject to carbon taxes,” Fairr said. They also do not rule out a scenario in which half of the 40 livestock companies assessed will operate at a loss in 2030. As a solution to the problems, the organization suggests that agricultural companies switch to crop production.

The prospect of a reduction in the production of livestock for slaughter in developed countries creates certain prospects for other countries. Last year, the global meat and poultry market amounted to 365 million tons, and exports amounted to $153.2 billion, which is 14% more than in 2020, the Center for Agricultural Analytics at the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation reported. Experts expect further growth in demand for meat and meat products. They estimate the potential for beef exports from the Russian Federation at 75–80 thousand tons, or $450–480 million per year. Analysts note that in recent years, Russian beef exports have grown significantly - from 5.4 thousand tons, or $18.5 million, in 2017 to 34.6 thousand tons, or $234 million, in 2022. They pin their main export hopes on China and Saudi Arabia, which already account for over 76% of Russian deliveries in value terms.

According to the center's analysts, the growth in deliveries became possible due to the opening of the Chinese market for Russian exporters. Recently, China has been increasing supplies from Russia. China increased imports of beef and offal from Russia from 2 tons in 2019 to 21.5 thousand tons in 2021 (by $149.2 million). Thus, the share of China in Russian exports amounted to 58.1% in physical terms and 65.8% in value terms, experts report. For comparison: China buys 2.8 million tons of pork per year. Half of all deliveries are almost equally divided between Spain and Brazil.

At the same time, while the possibilities of the Russian Federation for the export of all types of meat look rather limited. It is reported that at the end of 2022, the country produced 11.7 million tons of meat and poultry. At the same time, meat consumption in the Russian Federation is 79 kg per person per year. That is, only 11.5 million tons are for domestic consumption. Most of all, the country produces pork and poultry meat: 5.52 million tons (+5% yoy) and 5.3 million tons (4.4%). Beef accounts for only 1.6 million tons, which is 3.6% less than a year earlier.