World meat industry news

Although the economy faced serious difficulties and risks in 2022, almost all participants in the next Agroinvestor rating of the largest meat producers increased their output, while those who reduced it saw a relatively small decrease. The top 25 companies produced a total of 6.76 million tons of meat in carcass weight, and the share of the largest players increased by about 3.4% over the year, to 58% of the total production in the country.

According to preliminary data from Rosstat, in 2022, all farms produced 15.7 million tons of livestock and poultry meat for slaughter in live weight. The figures in carcass weight at the time of preparation of the article have not yet been published by the statistical department. According to the calculations of Agroinvestor, it amounted to about 11.6 million tons against 11.29 million tons in 2021. Despite the new challenges associated with sanctions pressure, the meat sector continued to grow, while the market leaders traditionally increased production volumes at a faster pace. The participants of the next top 25 produced an estimated 6.76 million tons of meat (hereinafter - in slaughter weight, unless otherwise indicated) - approximately 590 thousand tons more than the companies included in the rating based on the results of 2021. The share of the largest players increased by 3.4% over the year, to 58% of the total production in the country.

Including companies from the top 25, in total, they produced about 3.6 million tons of poultry meat (broiler, turkey, duck) - 270 thousand tons more than a year earlier. Their combined share of the total production in the country reached 68%. The leaders also produced about 3 million tons of pork (about 67% of the indicator in all farms), adding approximately 330 thousand tons. Beef production increased by an estimated 30 thousand tons, to 149 thousand tons, which is about 9% of the total across Russia.

Leaders don't want to move

For the eighth time, Cherkizovo Group took the first place in the rating, having produced 917.7 thousand tons of meat - broiler, pork and turkey. Compared to 2021, the volume increased by almost 57 thousand tons. Including the company produced 846 thousand tons of broiler meat in live weight, which is 4.1% more than a year earlier. The growth in volumes was influenced by the expansion of production in the Altai Territory: the commissioning of new poultry houses, the launch of a deep processing workshop. Also, the increase in volumes was facilitated by the development of exports due to the expansion of geography (four new countries - Qatar, Angola, Mongolia, Tajikistan) and increased sales in the countries of the Near Abroad, the press service of the agricultural holding commented.

Pork production in 2022 by the enterprises of the group amounted to 257.7 thousand tons in live weight, which is 7.4% more than in 2021. The total capacity of Cherkizovo in pig breeding is now about 300 thousand tons. The company also produced 100.2 thousand tons of turkey meat in live weight, which is 28.5% more than a year earlier. The growth in volumes was influenced by the acquisition by the company at the beginning of 2022 of the Tula Krasnobor. “Cherkizovo Group plans to further increase the production of various types of meat products, doing this through both organic development and M&A transactions,” says a company representative. In particular, at the end of 2023, an increase in volumes will be ensured by transactions at the end of 2022: the group bought the broiler assets of Healthy Farm Group from Trust Bank.

The second line of the rating, as well as a year earlier, was occupied by GAP "Resource". At the end of 2022, it became the first Russian company in the industry, whose production volume exceeded 1 million tons of broiler chicken meat in live weight. In carcass weight, the output was 829 thousand tons, the representative of the group specified. The growth in volumes is associated with an increase in existing capacities and the expansion of the geography of production assets. If the company specified production volumes only in live weight and Agroinvestor calculated the slaughter weight by the average coefficient (0.75), then Resource would be in third position with 752.2 thousand tons. However, according to the rating methodology, when the company itself announces the volume of production in carcass weight, this indicator is taken into account. Compared to the previous rating, the group added 160 thousand tons and became the leader in terms of growth rates.

Miratorg retained third place with an estimated figure of 788.4 thousand tons (+126.9 thousand tons). The company did not specify production volumes, and during the past year it did not publish press releases in which they would appear, or planned values for meat production. According to the National Union of Pig Breeders (NSS), in 2022 the agricultural holding confirmed its leadership in the industry by producing 665 thousand tons of pork in live weight, which is 110 thousand tons more than a year earlier. The company also produced 174 thousand tons of broilers in live weight (+24 thousand tons), according to the information of the National Union of Poultry Breeders (NSP). Beef production appears to have been on the rise as well, with the company reporting last March that its Aberdeen Angus cattle population exceeded 900,000 animals. Estimated output could reach 240 thousand tons in live weight, taking into account the production of pink veal. Miratorg continues to implement the project for the production of lamb in the Kursk and Tula regions, however, the company has not announced the operating performance of the enterprises for a long time.

Fourth place in the ranking, like a year ago, was taken by Charoen Pokpand Foods (part of the Thai CP Foods). The company did not specify data on production volumes. According to industry associations, the holding's enterprises produced 271 thousand tons of broiler meat and 263.4 thousand tons of pork (both figures are in live weight). In terms of - in the amount of 408.7 thousand tons in slaughter. Compared to 2021, the company added almost 43 thousand tons of meat from both poultry and pig farming (+31 and 25 thousand tons in live weight, respectively).

Top-5, as in the previous ranking, closes the "Agrocomplex" named after. N. I. Tkachev with an estimated figure of 374.6 thousand tons. The company did not respond to a request, there were no fresh data on production volumes on its website at the time the rating was prepared, and the annual report was not published either. According to the NSS, last year the company's complexes produced 111.4 thousand tons of pork in live weight - approximately at the level of 2021. The poultry farms of the agricultural holding produced 372,000 tons of broilers in live weight, 20,000 tons more than a year earlier, NSP reported. Agrocomplex also produces beef, and output volumes have remained generally stable over the past years. In 2021, according to the company's report, it produced 14.2 thousand tons in live weight, in 2022 the figure could increase to 15 thousand tons.

In total, companies from the top 5 produced an estimated 3.3 million tons of meat in 2022 - almost half of the total volume of companies included in the rating. They also provided 68% of the total increase in production among the participants in the list.

Almost everything is positive

The positions of the next three companies have also not changed compared to the previous rating, despite the increase in production volumes. Sixth place at "Prioskolye". According to the NSP, the company produced 455 thousand tons of broilers in live weight, 31 thousand tons more than in 2021. In slaughter weight - approximately 341.2 thousand tons.

The seventh line is occupied by Sibagro with 339.4 thousand tons (+24.85 thousand tons). Last year, the company produced 388 thousand tons of pork in live weight, 23 thousand tons more than in 2021, and 36.8 thousand tons of poultry meat (in slaughter weight). The holding has retained its leading position among Russian producers and implemented a number of large investment projects, including the construction of the second stage of a pig farm in Buryatia and the reconstruction of the Belgorod site,” says Vitaly Pavlyuk, Executive Director of Sibagro. “The volume of production this year will not change significantly in relation to the indicators of 2022, we are completing the current modernization measures and bringing the Belgorod pig farm to full design capacity.”

The eighth position in the ranking is BEZRK-Belgrankorm with 282.65 thousand tons (an increase of 6.8 thousand tons). In 2022, the company produced 301 thousand tons of poultry meat in live weight, in 2021 it was 295 thousand tons. The release of 339 thousand tons is planned for 2023,” a company representative comments. “Pig production in live weight was 73,000 tons, in 2021 it was 69,000 tons, the plan for 2023 is 76,000 tons. In poultry and pig farming, growth is envisaged through the commissioning of new sites and the intensification of industries.”

The Rusagro Group moved up from tenth to ninth place with 262.2 thousand tons of pork. According to the NSS, last year the company produced 336.1 thousand tons in live weight, improving the result of 2021 by 27.5 thousand tons. Also, Agroeko, which became tenth, moved up one line, which produced 322 thousand tons of pork in live weight (+47 thousand tons), or about 251.2 thousand tons in slaughter (germination by 37.5 thousand tons). This year, the company expects to increase the output of livestock to 340,000 tons.

Damate Group moved up from 12th to 11th place in the ranking with 233.9 thousand tons (+22.4 thousand tons). At the end of 2022, the company increased the production of turkey meat by 8%, to 216 thousand tons. Including in the Rostov region, the output increased by 21%, to 51 thousand tons, in the Penza region - by 5%, to 166 thousand tons , cites the data of the general director of Damate Andrey Sedov. “Among the important events of the past year is the launch in the Tyumen region of Russia's largest breeding turkey reproducer of the second order with a capacity of 12 million eggs per year. The reproducer will significantly reduce dependence on the import of genetic material and increase egg quality due to a shorter shelf life and by optimizing logistics,” he says. “We will receive the first hatching egg already in the second quarter of this year, it will be delivered to our complex in the Penza region.” This year, the company will continue to increase its turkey production.

Also last year, Damate increased the production of duck meat by 65%, to 17.9 thousand tons. The company was modernizing an enterprise in the Rostov region and bringing production facilities to their planned capacity. In 2022, Damate completed the formation of its own parental duck herd of 70,000 heads to reduce dependence on import supplies.

In addition, the company actively developed the mutton project in the North Caucasus Federal District. In autumn, Russia's largest mutton slaughter and processing plant was opened in Karachay-Cherkessia with a capacity of 25 thousand tons of products per year. “At the beginning of this year, we began the construction of a selection and genetic center for breeding sheep in the Stavropol Territory. The center will create the best gene pool of Russian sheep by transferring the latest technologies in the field of genetics, breeding and reproduction, and reduce dependence on imported breeding products,” says Sedov. By the end of 2023, Damate plans to produce about 18 thousand tons of lamb.

The Velikoluksky Pig Breeding Complex dropped from ninth to 12th place, which, according to the NSS, produced 299.2 thousand tons of pork in live weight - 10 thousand tons less than in 2021. In terms of carcass weight, the company reduced the volume by 7.8 thousand tons, to 233.4 thousand tons. Given the small difference between Damate and Velikoluksky and the fact that the meat yield of the latter may be higher than the industry average perhaps these companies should switch places.

How the ranking was made

The rating is based on open data of companies, information on pork and broiler meat producers, which is aggregated by the National Union of Pig Breeders and the National Union of Poultry Breeders, as well as expert assessments. The indicators of the companies included in the long list were specified by calling and sending written requests. If the data were indicated in live weight, Agroinvestor recalculated the indicators into slaughter weight according to the coefficients used by Rosstat for agricultural organizations: 0.75 for poultry (for turkey - 0.82), 0.78 for pigs and 0.58 for cattle.

Production volumes of companies that did not specify production figures were estimated based on open sources: information from official websites, including annual reports, news publications, corporate publications; documents posted on information disclosure portals; data from industry associations and expert assessments; materials of mass media and regional administrations. The footnote "estimation" was put if the volume of production of at least one type of meat from the company was estimated only by sources in the market. Industry union data is treated as factual, not estimated. The list does not claim to be an unconditional completeness of data and does not exclude that there are other major players on the market that for one reason or another were not included in the analysis, and also that the production volumes of companies may differ from the calculated indicators, including due to the difference slaughter yield coefficients.

AgroPromkomplektatsiya holding, which occupied 14th position a year earlier, became 13th in the list with 211.5 thousand tons (+20.2 thousand tons). The company increased pork production by 25.4 thousand tons, up to 270.7 thousand tons in live weight, according to the NSS. Also, it is estimated that it produced about 0.7 thousand tons of beef in live weight. In March last year, the company reported that its specialized farm for fattening and growing young cattle in the Kursk region began selling bulls to the holding's meat processing plant in the Tver region. The farm is designed for a one-time maintenance of approximately 3.5 thousand head of cattle.

Agro-Belogorye holding moved from 13th to 14th place, despite an increase in production by 11.7 thousand tons, up to 205 thousand tons. In 2022, the company's pig complexes sold 262.8 thousand tons of pigs in live weight, which is 9.2 thousand tons more than a year earlier. The increase in volumes was achieved by increasing the efficiency of production: working with the broodstock, with feed, increasing labor productivity, the press service of the agricultural holding clarifies. In 2023, the group of companies plans to maintain the achieved level.

As in the previous year, the 15th line is occupied by the Prodo group, which increased meat output by 8.1 thousand tons to 152.9 thousand tons. Four poultry farms of the company produce broiler meat, the total volume amounted to 186.4 thousand tons in live weight. The increase in volumes is due to the growth in demand for the products of enterprises: additional loading of existing capacities was carried out. “All poultry farms work only for their own processing facilities, poultry meat is not sold as a raw material to third-party organizations,” a representative of the group clarifies. — Every year the share of products of deep processing increases. So, in 2022, its sales grew by 21%, and the share in the total amounted to 44%. Pork in the structure of Prodo is produced by Omsk Bacon, the production volume amounted to 16.8 thousand tons in live weight. Last year, as a result of work to improve the efficiency of the enterprise, the meat yield per sow increased by an average of 8%, and the average daily weight gain - by 5%. Now a strategy is being developed for the further development of the pig-breeding direction of the Prodo group, which includes an increase in production volumes.

In 2023, the group's enterprises are not going to reduce production volumes. All of them will continue to realize their potential and plan to increase the output of the most popular product categories with the growth of consumer demand for them, the representative of Prodo notes. “It is still difficult to reflect this dynamics in concrete figures. However, the experience of 2022 shows that enterprises are able to quickly respond to surges in demand,” she adds.

Everything is stable at the bottom of the list too

Agrogroup Good Deal increased production by 1.8 thousand tons, up to 124.9 thousand tons. for one position. The Chamzinskaya poultry farm of the group produced almost 124.9 thousand tons of poultry meat (including offal), as well as 59.13 tons of beef and pork in half carcasses - 1.5% and 5.8% more than in 2021, respectively . This year, the company plans to slightly increase production volumes, says the presentation of Good Deeds.

Taking into account the adjustment of the place of the Good Deed agricultural group, Trust in the previous rating should have taken the 16th position, and not the 17th. In the new list of leaders, he became 17th with 123.12 thousand tons (-4.28 thousand tons). The poultry farms that were part of the Trust Poultry Assets, last year, according to the NSP, produced 147 thousand tons of broilers in live weight, its Rodnikovsky pig farm produced 16.5 thousand tons of pork also in live weight, a representative of the Trust clarifies ". Obviously, Trust entered the top 25 for the last time: at the end of last year, it sold its broiler assets to the Cherkizovo group, and the Rodnikovsky pig farm was put up for auction in April.

On the 18th line, as well as a year earlier, the agricultural holding "Talina". The company, according to the NSS, increased pork production by 26.3 thousand tons, up to 156.7 thousand tons in live weight. In the slaughterhouse - by 20.5 thousand tons, up to 122.2 thousand tons. The company clarified that the production of meat and its products in 2022 amounted to 274.3 thousand tons - 10% more than in 2021 , including 145.7 thousand tons of sausages. However, the output of processed products is not taken into account in the rating.

Considering the small difference between the Good Deed, Trust and Talina agricultural groups, and the fact that the meat yield of the latter two may be higher than the industry average, it is possible that the companies in this trio should switch places.

Agrosila also retained its 19th position in the ranking with 95.2 thousand tons (+1.45 thousand tons). In 2022, the Chelny-Broiler poultry farm, which is part of the holding, produced 126.9 thousand tons of poultry meat in live weight, in 2021 - 125.3 thousand tons. The indicators were increased, in particular, by improving the conditions for keeping broilers (introduction of new forms of microclimate control, improvement of the ventilation and humidification system, raising the professional level of operators, the use of thermally treated bedding material), as well as improving the sanitary well-being and biosecurity of the enterprise (disinfection, sanitization, development of control cards), clarifies the agricultural holding. This year, production volumes are planned to be kept at least at the level of 2022.

The KoPitania holding moved up from 24th to 20th place from 87.8 thousand tons. Last year, the production volume was estimated at 73.15 thousand tons. live weight. According to the NSP, it also produced 52 thousand tons of broilers in live weight. Ariant moved up from 22nd to 21st line in the ranking, which, according to the NSS, produced 105.3 thousand tons of pork in live weight (+8.3 thousand tons), or, according to the calculations of Agroinvestor , 82.1 thousand tons in slaughter (an increase of 6.44 thousand tons compared to the previous top 25).

The Bashkir Meat Company (Tavros), a new participant in the rating, became the 22nd in the list. According to the NSS, last year it produced 101.3 thousand tons of pork in live weight, having improved the result of 2021 by 22.6 thousand tons. The estimated output in slaughter weight is 79 thousand tons (+18 thousand tons ). Given the small difference with Ariant, it is possible that the companies should switch places.

Komos Group dropped from 20th to 23rd place, whose enterprises produced a total of 77.42 thousand tons of meat - 1.46 thousand tons less than a year earlier. Including the production of poultry meat amounted to 42.7 thousand tons, pork - almost 34 thousand tons, beef - 725 tons. The volume of pork production decreased by 7%, which is associated with reconstructions carried out at pig breeding sites, the representative of the agricultural holding clarifies. The growth in poultry meat production at the Udmurt Poultry Farm was caused by an increase in the average daily weight gain and stocking density. The efficiency index for the broiler herd (European production efficiency index - EPEF) increased from 437 to 463. This year, Komos Group expects to produce 35.1 thousand tons of pork, 42.2 thousand tons of poultry meat and 820 tons of beef.

Exima moved from 23rd to 24th line, producing 75.2 thousand tons of pork (+0.1 thousand tons), or 96.4 thousand tons in live weight, according to the NSS. The difference between the performance of the company and Komos Group is small, so it cannot be ruled out that with meat output above the average, Exima could be one place higher. The top 25 is closed by the Oktyabrskaya agricultural company, which, according to the NSP, produced 91 thousand tons of broilers in live weight - 69.75 thousand tons in slaughter (+1.55 thousand tons).

Challenges-2022

In 2022, the restrictions caused by the sanctions created a number of problems in the meat industry. In particular, logistics became more complicated (it was necessary to adjust the directions of deliveries), the cost of imported raw materials used in production rose. There were delays in obtaining process equipment, partly due to the cessation of work of its manufacturers in Russia. “In autumn, we also faced unfavorable weather conditions: due to prolonged rains, harvesting was complicated,” he notes. “In general, the industry has coped with these challenges, so we evaluate the results of its development and the company in 2022 positively.”

The main factor influencing the meat business is grain, which makes up 70% of the cost of pork, says Vitaly Pavlyuk from Sibagro: it is important that it be inexpensive and of high quality. “Last year, sanctions and difficult weather conditions contributed to the harvesting campaign, but we have drawn conclusions, and today the holding is ready in advance for any possible scenario,” he comments. “Sibagro production sites are fully equipped and prepared both technically and technologically.”

The market is waiting for new deals

According to Sergey Yushin's forecast, M&A deals will continue this year in the meat industry. “The industry continues to consolidate, it is becoming increasingly difficult to compete in it, and enterprises with not the best quality management, with a large debt load or other problems that lead to a precarious position in the market are looking for buyers or investors, and large players are looking for assets that can be profitable buy to increase the share without wasting time building new facilities and create additional value for your company,” he comments.

Moreover, according to Yushin, there are non-core investors who are closely watching the agricultural market in general and the meat market in particular. Seeing its stable growth over the years and understanding the export prospects, they are thinking about entering the market. “However, today it will be difficult for non-core investors to compete with professional teams that have been running large meat companies for many years,” he warns.

In 2022, the business of the meat enterprises of the Prodo Group was influenced by a number of both negative and positive factors. At the beginning of the year, the rapid growth of foreign exchange rates made short-term planning almost impossible. In that situation of uncertainty, the introduction of additional sanctions and restrictions, all market participants found themselves in a very difficult situation, says a company representative. Then the group made a number of decisions that made it possible to survive the crisis in the best possible way: for example, a strategic stock of basic feed components was created, many of which are imported. “By the summer the situation stabilized, new import channels were established. In addition, many consumers decided to spend their holidays in their native regions, the demand for meat processing products began to grow, she says. “Here, the companies that quickly identified consumer needs and optimized the assortment received the maximum benefit.”

"Agro-Belogorye" expects that this year the cost of pork production will decrease by 9% due to lower grain prices. “Many imported components were used in the technology of raising pigs. The first is breeding animals to maintain productivity and update the herd, the second is feed components and the third is veterinary drugs, a company representative lists. — In the conditions of sanctions pressure, we had to change a lot. We now acquire highly productive breeding animals or semen from Russian nuclei. We mainly buy feed ingredients from Russian manufacturers. In production, mainly domestic antibacterial drugs are used, and production experiments with domestic vaccines are also now being carried out.

“Demand is generally stable”

Olesya Dmitrova, General Director of the trading house "Agro-Belogorye"

Two key factors, of course, had the greatest impact on business and sales last year - these are the SVO and sanctions. In March 2022, we saw a boom in demand for pork, driven by panic and general uncertainty. But the situation quite quickly entered an adequate and more or less predictable course. This year, the key factors are the same, plus, of course, the increase in total pork production in Russia, which is predicted by the NSS.

The decline in wholesale pork prices was observed throughout almost the entire 2022. In 2023, the same trend is observed, and we will consider the preservation of the average prices of last year to be an acceptable result. Demand is generally stable: we are not seeing any sharp jumps, as was the case in March 2022, or sharp drops.

As for exports, last year the result was disappointing for us - a 2.5-fold decrease in volumes. The main reason is the foreign policy situation: blocking of accounts, difficulties with container transportation and, in general, with logistics. In 2023, we are seeing a small but still positive trend in terms of sales. We can say that manufacturers - including us - are adapting to the current realities. Vietnam remains the main export market for our company.

At the beginning of 2022, the Good Deed agricultural group felt a shortage of spare parts and consumables for equipment, since earlier supplies came from producing countries (Germany, the Netherlands). “At the end of the year, the issues were resolved, and we were able to replace the technological equipment at the poultry sites, the need for hatching eggs from outside was completely closed,” a company representative comments. Agrosila faced similar problems. This year, it solves the issue of logistics for the supply of spare parts and components by replacing imported components with domestic counterparts without losing the quality of the product and searching for alternative suppliers, says a company representative.

In 2022, the industry as a whole was significantly affected by the increase in the cost of spare parts for equipment and packaging used in the manufacture of finished products, a Komos Group representative notes. “In 2023, the development of the meat business may be negatively affected by the introduction of new anti-Russian sanctions, the growth of exchange rates, the restriction of sales markets and, as a result, the increase in prices for imported raw materials and materials,” she adds.

There are difficulties with the supply of equipment and software, but the industry is taking steps to strengthen contacts with alternative suppliers, where possible, confirms the head of the National Meat Association (NMA), Sergey Yushin. “We look forward to more efficient work of the Ministry of Industry and Trade in terms of creating equipment for the food industry in general. We expect that our digital solution providers will take advantage of the opportunity and help ensure the stable operation of the meat and meat processing industry,” he says.

Outlook for this year

Maintaining the availability of products for consumers will be among the priorities of the meat industry for 2023 and beyond, according to a representative of the Cherkizovo group. To do this, we need to continue to engage in technological development - the digital transformation of all business processes. “Logistics remains a significant factor, which determines the stability of the industry and affects the cost of production. Optimization of logistics through the search for alternative supply channels and suppliers is something that needs to be worked on, he draws attention. “Also, among the priorities, we can single out the development of genetics and selection, which is directly related to import substitution.”

One of the factors that will influence the meat market this year is the dynamics of disposable incomes of the population. “We still have a certain concern that they will stagnate or even decline due to possible crisis phenomena in the economy and high inflation,” Yushin admits. “Now those risks seem to be on the decline. We are promised much more restrained inflation rates than previously predicted, and its significant slowdown since April. Moreover, the disposable income of the population is expected to grow by 2-3% this year compared to last year. All these factors should support the demand for meat and meat products. First of all, for chicken meat and pork, which remain one of the most preferred products of the food group, based on the dynamics of consumer prices in recent years and consumer qualities.

Many food products have risen in price in recent years, forcing Russians to reduce their consumption, while chicken and pork prices on the shelf have long been quite stable, and their dynamics significantly lags behind food inflation, recalls Yushin. “It is these two types of meat that account for 80% of consumption, so we assume that even an increase in their production will find demand domestically,” he adds.

The upward trend in the share of consumption of poultry meat, including turkey, and pork will continue, while the percentage of consumption of beef in general will decrease, with the exception of premium and high-quality beef, where demand is quite stable, the head of the NMA continues. “In the premium beef segment, it is likely that demand will grow due to an increase in its physical availability - the appearance of a quality supply in regions increasingly remote from megacities,” Yushin believes.

Growing supply and tougher competition will keep meat prices down, which, however, does not rule out seasonal surges in demand for certain parts and types of products, although the seasonal factor has always been present, Yushin adds. “According to our forecasts, by the end of the year, prices for broiler and turkey will be stable, and for pork they may even be lower than in 2022,” he says.

According to Albert Davleev, President of Agrifood Strategies, four factors will influence the development of the meat market this year. The first is the purchasing power of the population, which is still in a state of stagnation. According to reports from research companies, Russian consumers are switching from high-margin products to simpler ones. The same trend is also noted by

Drivers who are starting to introduce cheaper, mass items into the assortment. At the same time, the bulk of sales is concentrated in discounters or hard discounters, he explains.

The second factor is the cost of production, which depends on the prices of input raw materials. For producers of pork and poultry, the cost of grain and soybean meal is decisive. Grain prices are currently at a low level, and most likely they will remain so until the end of the season due to huge stocks. “However, due to the oversupply of grain, many producers are likely to reduce the area under grain, which will lead to higher prices for them after the stocks are exhausted,” says Davleev. - Accordingly, towards the end of this year, feed prices will increase. And since the cost of meals in the world is also growing and today soybean meal is twice as expensive as a year ago, the cost of production will increase by the end of the year. In this situation, most likely, consumer demand for meat may decrease.”

The third factor is the uncertainty associated with the economic situation. The functioning of many enterprises is becoming more difficult in the context of continued closure of access to a number of positions of the necessary equipment and spare parts. “Finding new suppliers is not an easy process. Foreign companies are afraid of the consequences of sanctions, in addition, it is not always easy to find alternative proposals of decent quality, the expert comments. “In such a situation, there is a rather serious risk of reducing the technological equipment and, accordingly, the economic efficiency of the industry.”

Sibagro will continue to expand exports

Vitaliy Pavlyuk, Executive Director of Sibagro

The holding is actively engaged in deliveries abroad - in 2022, 11.5 thousand tons of products were exported. The main partner countries are Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and we have resumed trade relations with Vietnam. Further plans include certification of our enterprises for shipments to Uzbekistan, the Philippines, China, Thailand, India, we are also considering the possibility of exporting to the UAE.

The fourth factor is positive: it is possible that with the weakening of the ruble, our export sales will increase, and this will be a good help for meat processors and raw meat producers. “In terms of price, our products have become 25-30% more affordable for international buyers, and we can seriously compete with global exporters of poultry, beef, and pork in the foreign market,” Davleev is sure. Yushin also believes that this year's trend will be to expand supplies to traditional markets. “Last year, although the industry showed record results in the export of meat and meat products — Rosselkhoznadzor estimated exports at 650,000 tons — we expected a more significant increase compared to 2021,” he admits. “The strong ruble interfered for most of the year, which reduced our competitiveness. In addition, the problems of logistics were quite acute.

Now it cannot be said that everything is going smoothly in terms of exports, there are still difficulties with banking operations, logistics, which has become more expensive, but the recent weakening of the ruble has greatly increased interest in our products in a number of countries, continues the head of the NMA. “Our meat and meat products have become more competitive, and we hope that in 2023 exports will exceed last year, however, since the supply of meat on the market is growing at a faster rate than exports, an increase in shipments to foreign markets will not negatively affect consumer prices ”, Yushin clarifies.