CATTLE & BEEF
•In the eighth week of 2022, the Russian beef market, after a slight increase in prices, shows multidirectional dynamics. No fundamental changes have taken place. Prices for cattle in live weight decreased by 0.29%, while prices for beef sides continued to grow, adding 0.13%.The retail market also continued to grow, adding 0.34%.
• The influence of the approaching celebration of International Women's Day, the aggravation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine and the introduction of a new package of sanctions, which entail inflationary expectations, are affecting.
•Demand for beef from the end consumer remains at the same level so far, there are no sharp fluctuations in the market, but we expect an increase in demand for the coming week and a corresponding increase in prices due to both holidays and increased inflation due to the aggravation of the military conflict.
•As we said earlier, the main consumers of beef are people with a higher income level and adhere to the principles of proper healthy eating. A slight change in price does not have a fundamental impact on the level of consumption. The ability to replace this product with fish and poultry has a greater impact. And with a general rise in prices as a result of fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate and the unstable situation in Ukraine, such a reorientation is possible, so we expect an increase in retail prices, but it cannot be significant.
HOGS & PORK
•In the eighth week of 2022, the situation in the pork market began to change. In the segment of pigs in live weight, prices continued to decline, but they fell slightly (-0.34%). Prices in the cut meat segment also decreased (-1.61%).Prices for pork half-carcasses corrected and went up, although so far also insignificantly (+0.94%).
•There were no significant changes in retail - an increase in meat volumes led to a decrease in prices by another 0.19%.The price correction is due to the restoration of the work of the meat processing plant of one of the industry leaders after the outbreak of coronavirus, which led to a decrease in supply in the segment of half carcasses, the restoration of price proportions and positive dynamics in this segment.
•There is also a revival of demand in the wholesale and retail pork market, which creates preconditions for price growth in the pre-holiday week. The aggravation of the military confrontation with Ukraine has spurred inflation, which entails a more noticeable increase in prices for basic food products, including pork. Therefore, next week, an increase in prices for pig meat in all categories is predicted.
POULTRY MARKET
•The poultry market in the eighth week of 2022 shows multidirectional dynamics.
•Live poultry prices went up, adding 0.27%, while the price of poultry meat continued to decline, losing another 0.14%.In retail, the price decreased slightly, losing another 0.06%. Effective demand from the population does not increase, export opportunities are limited, so poultry meat continues to decline in price.
•But the decrease in retail has clearly slowed down, and next week we expect a slight increase in prices due to both the pre-holiday week and inflationary expectations, as a result of the aggravation of the situation in Ukraine, the introduction of a new package of sanctions and dollar exchange rate fluctuations.
•Poultry production in Russia is quite stable, which became possible due to the launch of new production facilities and a fairly stable epizootic situation with bird flu. Therefore, the volume of supply in the poultry market remains at the same level, and the main threat that can cause prices to rise is the acceleration of inflation.
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