General trends in the price situation of the Russian meat market in 2023 (analysis of wholesale prices)
In the second half of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, wholesale prices for pork and poultry meat generally trended weaker, mainly due to significant increases in production volumes.
Pork production in farms of all categories in 2022, compared to 2021, increased by 5.3% (by 228.1 thousand tons in slaughter weight), in the first half of 2023, according to AB-Center calculations - by another 4 .7% (by 120.8 thousand tons). Poultry meat production in 2022 increased by 4.5% (by 230.7 thousand tons). In the first half of 2023 - by another 1.5% (by 38.7 thousand tons).
In the second and third quarters of 2023, despite a slight increase in production and a relatively low level of feed prices (relative to the values of a year ago), prices for pork and poultry meat went up. This is due to the weakening of the ruble, which resulted in an increase in the cost of meat production (imported feed additives, breeding animals, equipment, etc.).
As for beef, here in 2022-2023. There is an unprecedented rise in prices. In April 2023, prices reached their peak levels for the entire period considered in the study; in May-June, beef prices weakened slightly; in July-August, they began to strengthen again. As AB-Center expects, further increases in prices for beef will be restrained by the purchasing power of the population.
At the end of 2022, in farms of all categories, beef production decreased by 3.2% (52.8 thousand tons) to 1,620.7 thousand tons in slaughter weight. In January-June 2023, there was a slight increase - volumes increased by 0.8% (5.1 thousand tons).
A reduction in beef prices could be facilitated by an increase in import supplies. But in 2022, compared to 2021, the volume of imports of chilled and frozen beef into the Russian Federation, according to AB-Center estimates, increased by only 6.7 thousand tons, and in January-June 2023, supplies decreased altogether - by 0 ,1 thousand tons. As for beef by-products, the volume of their imports into Russia in 2022 increased by only 0.6 thousand tons, in January-June 2023 - by 6.1 thousand tons. This volume is clearly not enough to bring down prices. Moreover, in the context of the weakening of the national currency, imported products in ruble terms have noticeably strengthened in price.
Comparative analysis of world prices for meat by type
Despite the rise in prices in rubles, in terms of US dollars, wholesale prices for meat in Russia are generally declining. Russian products are becoming increasingly competitive on world markets (see the section on world meat prices in the appendix to the study). Let us remind you that 15 years ago, wholesale prices for meat in Russia were 2-3 times higher than world prices.
Below is a comparison of world prices for pork, beef and poultry, using data for July 2023 as an example.
World pork prices (wholesale prices)
Note. The graph above shows world prices for pork in half carcasses. Statistics for Russia - Rosstat data on the position "pork, except by-products" in terms of US dollars. Conventionally, this indicator can also be taken as the price of pork in half carcasses.
World beef prices (wholesale prices)
Russia - average selling prices of agricultural producers for beef (beef, excluding offal). Rosstat indicator in US dollars. Can be mistaken for beef in carcasses and half-carcasses.
Uruguay - the average wholesale cost of all carcasses, half-carcasses, quarters and cuts offered for sale (all beef produced). Can be taken as the average price for carcasses and half-carcasses.
Australia/New Zealand - trimming 85% lean, FOB price.
USA Choice, Select - wholesale prices for block meat of the Choice and Select quality categories.
China - wholesale prices for beef in half carcasses.