World meat industry news

The dynamics of meat sales have recovered after stagnation in 2022. Most of the segments in the category not only returned to their previous level, but also exceeded the values of 2021 in absolute terms, NielsenIQ analysts noted. And if beef and turkey at the end of 11 months of 2023 did not recover from the decline in sales - in January-November 2022 they decreased by 16.2% and 1.9%, respectively, in 2023 they increased by 11.1% and 1. 2% - then chicken and pork set new records. Sales of the first increased by 4.1% after an increase of 0.4% a year earlier, the second increased by 1.8% after a plus of 9.9% in January-November 2022.

Average per capita meat consumption in Russia is about 80 kg per person per year, with the recommended norm being 74 kg. Of this, about 30 kg is pork and 32 kg is broiler. At the same time, the consumption of dairy products and fish is insufficient: 241 kg with a norm of 322 kg per person and 22 kg with a norm of 28 kg, respectively. Such data was presented by the head of the center of industry expertise of Rosselkhozbank Andrey Dalnov at the International Scientific and Practical Conference “Pig Breeding-2023. From adaptation mode to further sustainable development.”

According to Soyuzmoloko, by the end of 2023, consumption of dairy products may increase to 249 kg/person. This is a record since 1995, Dalnov noted. “This is partly natural: if we look at the dynamics of retail prices, a number of dairy products did not rise in price at all this year, and for some there were even negative dynamics,” he noted.

The consumption of vegetables and melons also lags behind the recommended norm, it is about 105 kg per year against the recommendation of 140 kg, fruits and berries - 65 kg against 100 kg. But the average sugar consumption reaches 39 kg per person per year and exceeds the recommended norm of 26 kg by the Ministry of Health. Dalnov believes that the situation can only be changed by the emergence of mass food assistance programs, since now, when forming a diet, consumers primarily focus on the cost of food. “I admit that there is a percentage of the population that really won’t get enough calories if sugar is expensive,” he stressed.

Retail prices are affected by supply, demand, weather, market regulators, including those outside our borders. “If the market itself is not a chaotic system, then it is associated with chaotic systems. Uncertainty is constantly growing,” Dalnov recalled. According to him, it is wrong to think that in a mature market we will achieve predictability, including in terms of prices. This is not true - volatility will increase. In particular, according to the forecast of Rosselkhozbank analysts, the probability of a serious decrease in wheat yields in Russia in 2024 is more than 70%; accordingly, feed prices may increase and the cost of livestock products will increase. “However, there is also a pleasant moment - the demand on world markets for food products is ahead of supply, so it makes sense for investors to invest in the development of production and exports; they can make money from this imbalance,” the expert noted.