World meat industry news

In recent years, the production of poultry meat in our country has occupied a leading position in the total volume of livestock and poultry reared for slaughter in live weight. So, in 2020, this direction accounted for 43%. However, as a key trend of this market in Russia, one can note a slowdown in growth rates, up to almost zero dynamics at the end of last year.

According to the data of the national report “On the progress and results of the implementation in 2020 of the state program for the development of agriculture and the regulation of markets for agricultural products, raw materials and food”, the release of poultry for slaughter in live weight at enterprises of all categories amounted to 6.7 million tons. This figure has become by 0.1%, or 6.6 thousand tons, more than in the previous year. However, in 2021, the figure remained virtually unchanged.

PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT

In 2014, the level of food security for poultry meat was achieved. For the period from 2010 to 2014, the increase amounted to 1608 thousand tons with an average annual rate of over 320 thousand tons. From 2015 to 2017, the market was stabilizing. During this period, the increase was 777 thousand tons with an average annual value of 259 thousand tons. Starting from 2017, the increase reached a little more than 50 thousand tons. In 2019, compared to the data of 2018, volumes increased by 0.7%, that is 34.3 thousand tons. In 2020, when compared with figures for the previous period, the increase was only 0.3%, or 16.7 thousand tons, and was provided by turkey. At the same time, chicken production has declined slightly. Against the background of a decrease in the growth in poultry meat output, self-sufficiency, which is the ratio of production to consumption, increased and in 2020 amounted to 101.3%. For comparison: five years ago, the figures were at the level of 95.7%, 10 years ago - 81%, 15 years - 51.1% according to calculations based on data from Rosstat, the WTO and the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation. In 2001, self-sufficiency was only 38.8%.

The accelerated development of poultry and pig breeding influenced the change in the structure of production by species. However, over the past five years, the segment of poultry for slaughter has decreased from 45.1% to 43%. According to the AB-Center expert-analytical organization, in 2000, poultry meat accounted for 40.2% of the consumption structure, pork for 33.2%, and beef and veal for 26.6%. In 2019, per capita chicken consumption reached a record high of 34.3 kg. In 2020, poultry began to occupy 50.1% in the diet of Russians with a per capita rate of 31 kg per person, which is 1.6 times higher than the rational norm established at the legislative level, and beef - only 18.5%.

LOCAL SPECIFICITY

It should be noted the uneven distribution of poultry production in the country, which correlates with the volume of products received. 

In particular, according to the national report on the implementation of the state program for the development of agriculture in 2020, in the total release of poultry for slaughter, the share of the Central Federal District was 37.1%, the Far Eastern Federal District - 0.7%. As a result, there is a division into donor regions, where production exceeds consumption, and recipients. In 2020, 21 constituent entities of Russia were among the first. The key ones in this group are the Belgorod, Tambov, Penza regions and the Stavropol Territory, which, without prejudice to domestic consumption, can supply over 200 thousand tons of poultry meat outside their borders. The block of donor territories with potential regional exports from 100 to 200 thousand tons was made up of the republics of Mari El and Mordovia, Leningrad, Bryansk, Lipetsk and Chelyabinsk regions.

The modern development of meat poultry farming is characterized by a relatively high level of concentration both by region and by producer. In particular, the share of the top 10 subjects in 2020 accounted for 52.5% of all poultry meat produced in the country. The top ten enterprises provided 56.1% of all chicken meat obtained from farms of all categories. For the top 5 turkey meat producers, this figure was 79.2%.

NEW LANDBOOKS

A promising direction that provides an increase in the volume of poultry rearing for slaughter and an expansion of the product range is the production of meat from turkeys, ducks, geese, guinea fowls and quails. Now there is a certain structure of poultry production in farms of all categories: broilers account for 88%, technological culling of chickens, egg crosses - 3.7%, turkey - 6.4%, duck - 1.5%, geese - 0.4% . It can be noted that five years ago, turkey occupied only 3.2% of the total, and 10 years ago - only 1.8%. Thus, there is an increase in the production of these products: the volume reached 330 thousand tons in carcass weight, which was 6.3 times more than a decade ago. According to the forecast, at such rates, by 2030 Russian turkey breeding will reach the level of 650 thousand tons of meat.

As part of the implementation of the state program, the reconstruction and modernization of production facilities in the industry were also carried out. In total, in 2015–2020, 80 new poultry farms were commissioned, 74 enterprises were reconstructed and modernized, and the additional volume of poultry rearing for slaughter in them was brought to 1434.8 thousand tons.

FOREIGN DELIVERY

The overproduction of poultry meat resulted in a change in the scale of imports and exports. According to the WTO, the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, in 2020, imports to our country reached 228.8 thousand tons, which is 3.4% of the total output. Since 2016, approximately similar amounts of supplies have been observed, which indicates the stabilization of imports. In the period from 2001 to 2008, the transportation of poultry meat to Russia significantly exceeded one million tons per year. Before the introduction of restrictions, larger shipments came from the EU and the US. In January and February 2021, the volume of imports decreased by 32.2%. 

The significant expansion of poultry meat exports associated with the opening of the Chinese market for supplies in 2019 and 2020 is one of the indicators characterizing the state of development of the domestic poultry meat industry. In 2020, China accounted for 49.3% of all volumes, which corresponded to 294.8 thousand tons. Over the past five years, the scale has increased by 4.4 times, over 10 years - by 16 times. In 2020, in relatively large consignments exceeding a thousand tons, exports were made to 19 countries, including small cargoes, that is, from 0.1 thousand tons and more, to 35 states. In January and February 2021, supplies decreased slightly - by 4.5%.

In general, the analysis of the current situation indicates that in the medium term during 2022-2025 poultry meat production may face conceptual changes. Their first signals were noted in 2021 and related to a tangible increase in feed prices: an increase in the average cost of compound feed for poultry for half a year was 17.5%, for a year - 25.5%. Strengthening is directly related to the increase in grain prices, which, in turn, is due to the global situation and changes in the ruble exchange rate. Such dynamics will affect not only cereals, but also other components of the forage base - oilseeds, cake and meal.

REDUCE DEPENDENCE

The issue of providing enterprises with hatching eggs is becoming more and more acute. According to Agrosprom, the production of such raw materials in Russia in 2020 amounted to 3.56 billion pieces. The average price of a broiler hatching egg in our country in 2021 increased from 14 to 30-35 rubles / piece. Outbreaks of avian influenza that are observed in the states of the European Union lead to annual supply closures in the spring and autumn. In this regard, imports from Turkey increased last year: about 20% of the needs of all 224 broiler poultry farms in the Russian Federation are imported. Also, over 60 enterprises, including the largest agricultural holdings, buy eggs abroad under direct contracts, and the rest - from traders. To change this situation, it is necessary to build loudspeakers of I and II orders worth 20 billion rubles.

To reduce dependence on imports of hatching eggs in broiler poultry farming, the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of August 25, 2017 No. 996 approved the Federal Scientific and Technical Program for the Development of Agriculture for 2017–2025 (FSTP). Within its framework, the implementation of the project "Creation of a domestic competitive meat cross of chickens in order to obtain broilers" is envisaged, which should reduce the level of import dependence of this direction of poultry farming on foreign breeding products.