World meat industry news

In autumn, Russians should prepare for rising prices not only for imported, but also for many domestic products. Meat, fish, sugar, vegetables, fruits, bread and even baby food will rise in price at least within the limits of inflation. It's not only about the weak ruble, but also about logistics, problems with personnel in domestic agriculture, and even an increase in the recycling fee.

Logistics and more

In the context of the rising value of the dollar, imported goods will definitely show growth. But inflation is influenced by many other factors. One of them is logistics.

“The rise in fuel costs, especially in the southern regions of Russia, continues to break records. Therefore, it is quite possible that the price of not only bananas from afar, but also the usual autumn fruits, such as persimmons and tangerines, will rise,” says a professor at the Department of World Economy and International Economic Relations of the State University of Management Galina Sorokina.

The rise in the price of another product - fish - is provoked by environmental risks. Due to the start of draining water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant reactor, some countries, including China, refused to buy fish and seafood from Japan.

And taking into account the potential of the Chinese market, the economist assumes that almost the entire Far Eastern catch will be exported to China. Restricting supply in Russia may raise prices not only for delicacies (red fish and caviar), but also for quite popular varieties.

Meat prices will spur staff shortages - fewer people want to farm and raise animals. Farmers are experiencing a shortage of labor, so they are forced to reduce their livestock.

"Unemployment data in June updated a historical low - just above 3 percent. This clearly indicates a shortage of personnel, which is especially noticeable in industries with high labor costs, such as agriculture and, in particular, livestock," explains the economist.

Problems with personnel require the employer to increase wages, which is always included in the cost of production and, consequently, in the price of the goods.

In this regard, "you can definitely expect" an increase in the cost of meat. And not only premium beef and turkey meat, but also pork and chicken meat that are still available to the population, Sorokina states.

Bread, sugar and baby food

Due to the growth of the recycling fee, agricultural products have already risen in price and may still rise in price, continues Associate Professor of the Department of Statistics of the Russian University of Economics. G. V. Plekhanova Olga Lebedinskaya.

So, on one of the most popular tractors MTZ 80/82, the main purpose of which is the mechanization of cultivation and harvesting of row crops (corn, sugar beets, potatoes, sunflowers, vegetable melons, etc.), with a power plant capacity of more than 60 hp. and no more than 90 hp, the recycling fee increased to 14.49 (instead of 3), the specialist calculated.

Rising flour prices, labor costs and logistics could potentially increase bread prices by 7-10 percent, she estimates.

Sugar can also add to the list of goods that are becoming more expensive. The fact is that since the beginning of the year, world prices for it have already grown by more than 25 percent, reaching a maximum value over the past 12 years.

And the rise in sugar prices can "pull up" prices for confectionery products, conservation, in the yeast and alcoholic beverage industries. However, these are socially important goods and the state will hold back prices for them.

Lebedinskaya does not rule out an increase in prices for baby food by the same 10 percent due to the fall of the ruble and an increase in world prices for raw materials.

Tea, coffee and imported exotic

In turn, the head of the RUDN University Marketing Department, Alexander Zobov, looks to the future with optimism. In his opinion, in the fall, food products, in general, will not rise in price. There is no underlying reason for this.

"In terms of basic products, Russia is self-sufficient, the harvest of wheat, vegetables, and fruits completely provides the" consumer basket "of the average Russian," he says.

However, the "certain depreciation" of the Russian currency in May-August objectively leads to higher prices for imported products. For Russians, this may mean that imported fruits, tea, coffee, and confectionery will rise in price by 10-15 percent. But, according to Zobov, this is not of a mass nature. The increase in prices may affect exotic fruits, while prices for other goods will be kept within acceptable limits.

If the ruble does begin to strengthen and return to the level of 75-80 per dollar, prices may even begin to decline, he said.

Will rise in price, as it happens every year, seasonal vegetables and fruits. Cucumbers and tomatoes will rise in price by October-November. But even in this case, prices will be highly differentiated. So, tomatoes (in the Moscow region) can cost from 180 to 550 rubles per kilogram, depending on the variety and country of cultivation.