World meat industry news

From January to April, agricultural production in Russia increased by 1.3% compared to the same period last year. Growth in April was 1.4%, according to the Rosstat report. “The volume of agricultural production of all agricultural producers in April 2024 in current prices, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to 481.7 billion rubles, in January-April 2024 - 1465.1 billion rubles,” reports the statistical agency.

Over the four months of this year, the production of livestock and poultry for slaughter on all farms increased by 3% in annual terms and amounted to 5.2 million tons (in live weight), in April - by 4.4%, to 1.3 million tons. Milk production in January-April in annual terms increased by 1.9%, to 10.3 million tons, in April - by 1.2%, to 2.9 million tons. Egg production for four months decreased compared to last year by 2.4% and amounted to 14.7 billion units; in April, it decreased by 3.2% to 3.8 billion units.

At the same time, according to statistics, at the end of April the number of cattle on all farms amounted to 17.4 million heads (2.8% less compared to the corresponding date last year), including 7.5 million heads of cows ( 2.6% less), pigs - 29.3 million (2.1% more), sheep and goats - 21.1 million heads (3.6% less).

According to Rosstat, in January-April, compared to the same period last year, agricultural organizations increased sales of main types of agricultural products, except eggs. Thus, during this period, 22.8 million tons of grain, 4.5 million tons of livestock and poultry (in live weight), 6.7 million tons of milk, and 11.1 billion eggs were sold through all channels.

Independent grain market expert Alexander Korbut recalls that in January-April last year, agricultural production growth was more active - 1.6%. According to him, in 2024, positive dynamics are noted due to greenhouse vegetable growing, production of livestock and poultry in live weight (against the backdrop of a declining livestock population, this indicates mass slaughter of livestock), as well as milk.

“April and May are not so worrying as what will happen to us with the harvest: grain harvests will clearly be significantly less than the Ministry of Agriculture’s forecast of 132 million tons. There will also be a fairly deep decline in fruit production, because the Central Federal District, which was the most affected by the frosts, produced about 20% of their fees,” Korbut commented to Agroinvestor. However, he continues, an increase in oilseed production is possible this year: the area under rapeseed and soybeans is already significantly higher than last year. However, despite this, Korbut agrees with the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture, which previously estimated a decline in agricultural production this year by 2.9%, including in crop production by 6.5%. The fall, according to the expert, could be even more serious.

Director of the Center for Market Research at the National Research University Higher School of Economics Georgiy Ostapkovich draws attention to the fact that agriculture is a seasonal industry, and it makes sense to monitor its performance starting from the end of May or the beginning of June-July, when the sowing season is over and a new crop arrives on the market. “January-April is the low season for agriculture <...>. I wouldn’t judge the dynamics of the industry based on the first four months,” says Ostapkovich.

In his opinion, the May frosts will bring some problems to the industry. But they will not cause a critical drawdown, and the Russian agro-industrial complex by the end of the year will reach approximately the level of 2023 (minus 0.3%) or will be slightly more. “Given the high cost of loans and the May weather, perhaps production will go down a little. But at the end of the year it will be around zero or in a small plus,” the expert believes. He also draws attention to the fact that this dynamics will not be reflected in the domestic market: only a decrease in the volume of exports of crop products is likely, and fruits and berries can be imported.

Meanwhile, the SovEkon analytical center revised the forecast for the gross wheat harvest this year, lowering it from 82.1 million to 80.7 million tons and did not rule out further downward revisions. First of all, the adjustment is associated with the deterioration of the condition of crops and a decrease in yield potential: first after hot and dry weather, then after the May frosts. Analysts are also concerned about the slow progress of sowing work in Siberia, the largest producer of spring wheat.