World meat industry news

The Russian market of agricultural raw materials and foodstuffs is characterized by:

- Relatively stable total  sown area sizes in 2021 and their multidirectional changes depending on the specific culture. The area under all crops, according to preliminary data from Rosstat, in 2021 amounted to 79,911.8 thousand hectares, which is practically at the level of values ​​for 2020.

At the same time, the area under grain and leguminous crops decreased by 1.8%, under oilseeds - increased by 14.4%, sugar beets - increased by 8.6%. The total area under other crops (including potatoes, vegetables, melons and fodder crops) decreased by 7.8%.

If we consider the dynamics not by groups of crops, but by specific crops, then the greatest increase in areas in percentage terms is noted for rapeseed, sunflower, curly flax (oil flax), buckwheat, peas, and sugar beets. The areas under rye, soybeans, and melons have also expanded.

The size of the areas under millet, fiber flax, and open field vegetables has decreased to a greater extent. Also, the change in areas towards their decrease affected rice, potatoes, barley, oats and wheat.

- Expected changes in the amount of crops harvested by species. Based on the dynamics of space, AB-Center expects a number of changes in the market. Among them:

1. Growth in the collection of oilseeds. Accordingly, in the season 2021/2022, the volume of production of oils, meals and other oilseed products will also increase.

2. An increase in the harvest of buckwheat and the production of buckwheat, which will lead to the stabilization of prices for this product.

3. Reduction the collection of millet. Accordingly, the volume of production of millet (cereals from millet) will also decrease. Millet prices, as expected to repeat the tendencies of two years ago

- Some reduction in meat production and its expected recovery. The total volume of production of all types of meat in carcass weight in January-June 2021 amounted to 5,144.8 thousand tons, which is 0.4% less than in the same period in 2020. Thus, 2021 is the first year since 2005 when there is a decrease in the total volume.

It is also important to note that the decline in indicators was mainly due to the first quarter of the year; in the second quarter, volumes tended to recover. Subject to a slight decrease in prices for the components of the fodder base (grain, oilseeds, cakes and meal, etc.), stable demand in the domestic market and growing demand in world markets, it is possible not only to restore indicators to the values ​​for 2020, but also to some growth.

In general, the total volumes sagged due to the reduction in the production of poultry meat. The production of beef, pork, lamb in the first half of 2021, on the contrary, increased.

- Expansion of export supplies of agricultural raw materials and foodstuffs from Russia. In January-May 2021, compared to the same period in 2020, the export of agricultural raw materials and foodstuffs from the Russian Federation in value terms increased by 10.9% to USD 11,683.0 million.

- An increase in the share of agricultural raw materials and foodstuffs in the total value of Russian exports of all goods. In 2020, according to AB-Center calculations, it reached 8.4%, in January-May 2021 it was also at high levels -  7.1%.

At the end of 2021, the share will be noticeably higher, since more export shipments are accounted for in the second half of the year.