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The import of goods to Russia from abroad is gradually recovering after the most severe sanctions. This recovery is primarily driven by supplies from Asia and, interestingly, includes imports from countries that have joined the sanctions. Russian imports are growing as East Asia replaces supplies from the EU.

The recovery in imports can be attributed to the rebuilding of supply chains and a strong ruble, however, although consumer imports are growing, investment imports are still in a difficult position with unclear prospects for a recovery.

The spring collapse of Russian imports was unprecedentedly strong. Data from the European Central Bank for May showed that this was the month when exports to Russia fell to their lowest level, while shipments from the Eurozone fell by 45%. Nearly two-thirds of this fall was in machinery and equipment.

The fall in exports to Russia of other goods was relatively small: for example, food saw a small 2% drop, while various manufactured goods, as well as transport and automotive equipment, fell by about 5%.

By the next month, June, the situation began to change, and in July there was a real breakthrough. However, the Federal Customs Service of Russia has not published statistics on foreign trade relations since February of this year, so one has to rely on the statistics of foreign countries.

China: $6.7 billion in July (+22% yoy) Bilateral trade turnover between the countries in the first seven months of 2022 - 97 billion US dollars (+29% per year). This growth is largely due to a sharp increase in Russian exports to China.

The overall increase in imports to Russia was driven by supplies from East Asia (July 2022)

South Korea: $542 million in July (+64.2 MoM)

Malaysia: +100% per month

Thailand, Vietnam, Taiwan: 20-30% per month

India: +25% per month

Turkey: +150% per month. Probably, the growth in supplies is associated with the transformation of Turkey into a transit hub for the supply of products from other countries. The United States has already demanded that Turkey comply with sanctions restrictions - it is possible that this was a reaction to the growth of trade with Russia. How successful US pressure will be, only future statistics will show.

Although Asia remains the main driver of the recovery of Russian imports, the EU countries are also gradually increasing supplies to Russia. Since the beginning of the year, deliveries to Russia from the European Union have grown by 18%, to 4.5 billion euros.

Against this background, a special position is occupied by the United States, which is almost the only trading partner of Russia, which continues to reduce its already small supplies. However, the volume and value of US exports to Russia have always been modest compared to Germany, China and other key counterparties.

However, so far, the growth in supplies from Russia's allies has not yet compensated for the losses incurred, since the most important thing is not quantitative, but qualitative indicators. It is easier to restore consumer imports and much more difficult - intermediate (raw materials, materials, components) and investment (equipment). This is due to the severity of Western sanctions on the supply of technological products to Russia and the pressure of the West (primarily the United States) on other countries with the threat of secondary sanctions for helping to circumvent restrictions.

How long will the import recovery trend last? In 2022, there will definitely not be a return to the import values ​​observed at the beginning of the year. In the coming years, options are possible - for example, the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development assumes that imports of goods will exceed the level of 2021 already in 2023, while the baseline scenario of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation does not predict a full recovery of imports of goods and services even in 2025.