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All news / Russian meat market in 2022 - key trends and forecasts

  • 25 Aug 2022, 10:33

In 2000-2021 there was a steady increase in meat production in the Russian Federation. At the same time, some stagnation of indicators was noted in 2021 - the growth rate slowed down significantly.Russian meat market in 2022 - key trends and forecasts

Thus, the production of meat of all types in 2021 amounted to 11346.1 thousand tons in slaughter weight, which is only 1.1% (124.1 thousand tons) more than in 2020.

In 2021, compared to 2020, pork production increased by 0.5%, beef - by 2.4%, poultry meat - by 1.2%, lamb and goat meat - by 0.3%, other types of meat - decreased by 0.1%.

Over 5 years (by 2016), the production of meat of all types in Russia in slaughter weight increased by 15.1% (by 1,492.8 thousand tons), over 10 years - by 51.0% (by 3,830.5 thousand . tons).

In 2022, the growth rate of meat production in the Russian Federation resumed to the levels of previous years. According to the results of January-June 2022, the production of meat of all types in farms of all categories in slaughter weight, according to AB-Center calculations based on Rosstat data on production in live weight, amounted to 5,441.0 thousand tons, which is 4.6% (by 241.1 thousand tons) more than in the same period in 2021.

The entire increase was provided by pork (+5.7%) and poultry meat (+5.8%). The production of beef, lamb and goat meat, and other types of meat, on the contrary, decreased.

- An increase in export supplies of meat and meat products in 2021

The export of meat and meat products from Russia in 2021 to all countries amounted to 533.6 thousand tons, which is 1.3% (6.8 thousand tons) higher than in 2020.

- Decline in exports of meat and meat products in January-June 2022

In January-June 2022, compared to the same period in 2021, according to AB-Center, the export of meat and meat products from Russia (excluding data on trade with the countries of the Customs Union of the EAEU and Iran) decreased by 7.8%.

However, despite the overall reduction in supplies, in January-June 2022, there is an increase in exports for certain items. Thus, the volumes of shipments of beef and poultry meat (both chicken and turkey meat) increased.

- A drop in imports of meat and meat products in 2021, as well as in January-June 2022

Import deliveries of meat and meat products to Russia in 2021, according to AB-Center calculations based on data from the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, decreased by 5.9% to 549.8 thousand tons (imports from all countries). In January-June 2022, imports of meat and meat products (excluding data on trade with the countries of the Customs Union of the EAEU and Iran) decreased by 17.0%.

- A significant increase in meat prices

In 2021-2022 there is a strengthening of meat prices in Russia, which is largely due to an increase in production costs in the context of high feed prices.

In the wholesale segment, prices for beef strengthened to a greater extent, which is especially pronounced in 2022. The rise in prices was influenced by the reduction in the volume of supply. Both beef production and its imports have declined. At the same time, shipments of Russian beef abroad increased.

Poultry meat prices also show an increase, although not as noticeable as for beef. This is largely due to the growth of poultry meat production in Russia.

For pork prices in 2021-2022 were generally significantly higher than in 2020. However, in 2022, there has been a trend towards their weakening, which is associated with high market saturation in the context of an increase in supply volumes.

In 2022, an increase in the harvest of most types of grains and oilseeds is expected in Russia. This will have an impact on the level of feed prices. In this regard, there is a high probability that the rise in meat prices will stop, prices will weaken somewhat.