World meat industry news

The forecasts for total meat production in 2015 and 2016 are increased from last month. Beef production for 2015 is raised on larger forecast slaughter of fed cattle in the second half of 2015 and heavier carcass weights. The forecast for 2016 is raised as cattle slaughter and carcass weights in the first half are projected higher than last month. The pork production forecasts for both 2015 and 2016 are raised. The pace of hog slaughter in the remainder of 2015 is expected to be higher. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs estimated less of a decline in sows farrowing during June-August than indicated in prior intentions and farrowing intentions into early 2016 support an increase in forecast pork production for 2016. Broiler production is raised for 2015 as a larger third quarter level more than offsets a reduction for the fourth quarter, but the forecast for 2016 is reduced as broiler producers have slowed the pace of egg sets. Turkey production for 2015 is lowered based on third-quarter production data; subsequent quarters through 2016 are unchanged. Egg production for 2015 is raised on higher third quarter hatching egg production. Production forecasts for 2016 are unchanged.

Beef imports are unchanged for 2015 and 2016. Beef exports for 2015 and 2016 are lowered as demand is projected to remain relatively weak. Pork export forecasts are unchanged, but a small increase is made to third-quarter 2015 imports based on recent trade data. Broiler exports are reduced from last month as slow global demand is expected to continue for in the remainder of the year and into 2016.

Cattle prices for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month on current large supplies of marketready cattle, weaker demand and competition from relatively large supplies of competing meats. Hog prices are raised for both 2015 and 2016 as demand has firmed. Broiler prices are lowered for both 2015 and 2016 on relatively large broiler meat supplies. Turkey prices are raised for 2015 on current price strength, but the forecast for 2016 is unchanged from last month. Egg prices for 2015 are lowered reflecting recent price declines, but the forecast for 2016 is unchanged.