World meat industry news

The Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) simultaneously released macroeconomic forecasts, each of which concerns the economic fate of Russia in 2023. According to the analytics of the Central Bank, we should expect a gradual increase in inflationary pressure on the consumer market in 2023 compared to the second half of 2022. At the same time, the IMF predicts Russian GDP growth by 0.3% in 2023, and by 2.1% in 2024.

In 2023, talent shortages, weakened external demand, and current technological constraints could be key factors that slow down the transition of the domestic economy to sustainable growth from the second half of this year. Such data are contained in the latest bulletin of the Research and Forecasting Department of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

“The Russian economy entered 2023 with a higher level of economic activity than expected even one or two quarters ago,” the Central Bank notes. — Positive economic dynamics at the end of last year was largely provided by export and government demand. Growth in agriculture was translated into the expansion of production in the food industry. In addition, the shift in consumer demand from goods to services has led to the growth of this segment of the economy. In the event of a stronger recovery in consumer demand, overall economic activity could pick up.”

At the same time, the decline in profits in the non-financial sector of the economy and the ongoing geopolitical tensions adversely affect the investment activity of the private sector. The slowdown in the global economy and the imposed restrictions reduce the demand for Russian exports, which carries risks for the current positive dynamics, emphasize the Bank of Russia.

The published forecast of the International Monetary Fund seems to be slightly different. According to him, last year Russia's GDP fell by 2.2%. At the same time, the IMF predicts Russian GDP growth by 0.3% this year, and by 2.1% in 2024.

“We can safely argue with the impact of the slowdown in the global economy on Russian growth,” says the head of the expert center under the Commissioner for the Protection of the Rights of Entrepreneurs under the President of the Russian Federation, director of the Growth Economics Institute. P.A. Stolypin Anton Sviridenko. - First of all, world agencies do not predict such a serious slowdown, and secondly, the opening of China, on the contrary, will stimulate it. So, apparently, the prerequisites in the report of the Central Bank are a little outdated. But the most important thing is that the Russian economy is now connected with some hypothetical world economy in a very specific way. The growth of the latter does not mean growth in Russia and vice versa.

At the same time, according to Anton Sviridenko, the IMF forecast is a very important signal.

“It means that the activity of business and the state really made it possible to find alternative schemes for the operation of the economy,” the economist believes. - And with a decrease in dollar dependence. This is a very interesting conclusion for the whole world, not only for Russia. Although the trends are multidirectional: on the one hand, the decline in demand and the strengthening of sanctions, on the other hand, the beginning of large-scale budget spending on structural state programs, there are indeed more funds this year than last.

The conditions for the transition of the Russian economy to sustainable growth in 2023-2025 will be determined by the effectiveness of the implementation of measures to ensure the adaptation of the economy to new conditions, the balance of the budget policy aimed at supporting domestic demand. This opinion is shared by Professor of the Department of State and Municipal Administration of the Financial University under the Government of Russia Yuri Shedko. According to him, during this period, sectoral measures to support the development of production and stimulate innovation (with an emphasis on import substitution) will be significant; maintaining employment by preventing the closure of production, retraining programs, and expanding social contract programs.

- It should be noted that the differences in the forecasts of the Central Bank and the IMF are due to the politicization of the platforms of the IMF and the World Bank, as well as the desire of the IMF to reduce the volume of SDRs for states friendly to Russia (SDRs - special drawing rights. - Ed.). Given the sanctions regime, Russia's ability to use SDRs is declining, says Yury Shedko.

The expert suggests that Russia in 2023 will have to experience a moderate, non-critical decline in GDP (zero growth).

At the same time, for sustainable economic development, it is necessary to carry out a whole range of measures, which should include legal regulation mechanisms, believes Khadzhimurad Belkharoev, Associate Professor at the Institute of World Economy and Business of the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia. In other words, it is necessary to create favorable conditions for foreign investors directly through legal norms.

— Especially in the current situation with mutual restrictive measures with the Western military-political coalition, our country needs to replace the withdrawal of pro-Western investors from the market, they need to be revived 

to be interested in the domestic market by investors from the Middle East, Asia and Africa, - Khadzhimurad Belkharoev is sure.

For the current period, in his opinion, it requires the development of large investment projects that will involve Russian-made raw materials and materials. For example: the expansion of the Trans-Siberian railway, the deepening and reconstruction of the waterway from the Azov to the Caspian Sea, the construction of roads, bridges, affordable housing for the population.

- A special place is occupied by agriculture, which is the locomotive of sustainable development of our country, - the interlocutor notes. — One job in the agricultural sector contributes to the creation of up to 10 jobs in other related industries. At the same time, the internal potential of the economy of our country is used very poorly, so it is necessary to develop closed-loop production capacities using the achievements of domestic science and technology.

According to Petr Shcherbachenko, Associate Professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, in order for the Russian economy to transition to sustainable growth, the following actions must be continued: to increase the income of the population, stimulate technological development, develop export potential, including through non-commodity non-energy exports, and increase the country's transport connectivity.