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All news / What will happen on the Russian pork market in 2021?

  • 03 Sep 2021, 10:59

The share of Russian pork exports in January - April increased to 69 thousand tons. This is stated in the report of the Rosselkhozbank. Vietnam is the first importer. However, the country managed to achieve such indicators only recently. Only in 2020, Russia was able to enter the top 10 exporters of pork meat, and the import of this meat approached nearly zero indicator. So what happened before that?

What will happen on the Russian pork market in 2021?

In 2012, the country was among leading pork importers. And only in 2018, Russia finally managed to  provide itself with pork meat. And in 2019, the percentage of exports even surpassed imports. According to the AB Center, since 2014, the total meat production in the country has grown by 18%, primarily due to pork.

After analyzing the pork market in the Russian Federation for 2020, we can conclude the following:

-total pork production in 2020 increased  to 445 thousand tons in live weight and 350 thousand tons in carcass weight. 

- in the first half of 2020  there was a prolonged decline in prices, but the consumption of pork meat in Russia was continuously increasing and reached 4 million tons.

- by the end of 2020, beginning of 2021, the price gradually reached the level of 2019, and consumption amounted to 76.5 kg per person.

 - in 2018 - 2020, the countries of Asia were hit by the ASF epidemic. This provoked many countries to import Russian pork.  

 - the promising  export markets for Russian pork in 2021 are China and Africa.  

Current situation on the Russian pork market

In the first three months of 2021, the production of all types of meat fell by 2.2%. The growth rates of pork meat production in the first half of 2021 was also at its lowest level in the last decade - 2.1%. Analysts attribute such indicators to ASF outbreaks across the country, higher feed prices and an unstable situation in the grain market.

The National Pork Producers Council claims that the domestic consumption of pork meat is growing slower than in 2020 (+ 5.2%), but still continues to rise (+1.5). In terms of self-sufficiency in pork, Russia has finally reached the level of 100%, and production within the country is increasing. All of these factors should ultimately lead to a decrease in the cost of pork. However,  the problems of export, ASF, the rise in the cost of raw materials & feed would keep pork prices at higher levels. And all this requires an increase in production efficiency in the entire industry as a whole.