Chicken and eggs in Russia may rise in price again. Such dynamics is explained, among other things, by circumstances of a veterinary nature. Analysts believe that the increase in wholesale prices will not exceed the March figures, while retail chains say that it will not reach the consumer.
Russian poultry farms that bought hatching eggs from restricted countries had to look for new suppliers, the Meatinfo portal reported. However, it is expected that there will be no acute shortage of breeding material, some Russian enterprises are fully provided with their eggs, the newspaper notes.
Moskovskaya Gazeta tried to understand the issue and found out that the reason for the possible rise in the price of poultry and eggs may not even be in the hatching egg, but in other import positions for this production
A journalist from Moskovskaya called Russian poultry farms, and two enterprises gave some clarifications.
Equipment and breeding stock
“Our eggs are domestic, but we buy the parent flock of chickens in France,” Sinyavinskoye Poultry Farm JSC told the publication.
"Pama" and "mother" are French, they can have up to 10 "children". All commercial layers in our poultry farm are from French parent flocks. The purchase price of chicken producers depends on the euro exchange rate. A few months ago, there were difficulties with this, now the situation is good, ”said the head of the breeding reproducer of Sinyavinskoye JSC.
According to the Deputy Director for Production of JSC Sinyavinskoye, “there are a lot of imported products in production, for example, vaccines for chickens. All equipment for transportation, drying, pasteurization, processing of eggs is imported, as well as cellular. We once invested in this production, we do not feel any problems yet. Spare parts are fine as well. We don't know what will happen next."
In general, the company does not expect an increase in production costs and is confident that it will fulfill all the necessary volumes. “In principle, other poultry farms have the same situation as ours,” Sinyavinsky said.
Vaccines for chickens, mostly imported, were confirmed at the Seymovskoye poultry farm in the Nizhny Novgorod region.
“There are questions about domestic vaccines, except for live vaccines against Newcastle disease,” the chief veterinarian at Seymovsky told Moskovskaya Gazeta. — Imported vaccines come from manufacturers in different parts of Europe, America, Mexico. Israeli vaccines are appearing on our market, and they are quite good in some respects. There are Korean ones, but I can’t say anything about them yet.”
Now there are difficulties with the supply of imported vaccines: some items have disappeared from warehouses, they have not yet been tritely brought, the veterinarian added.
“There is no sharp jump in the cost of vaccines - if only a smooth increase tied to the exchange rate. It is likely that in the Russian production of poultry and eggs there will be a transition to other vaccines. All this, one way or another, leads to an increase in the cost of egg production. It has already happened. But due to the situation with vaccines, prices will also rise, ”the employee of the poultry farm believes.
Avian flu and food panic
The forecast for prices for poultry and eggs was given to Moskovskaya Gazeta by Lyubov Savkina, commercial director of the information and analytical agency E-meat.
“Based on our monitoring of prices, in the next two months the cost of a carcass of a broiler chicken will grow, but its price should not exceed last year's marks of the same period and March prices of the current year, when price indicators reached 165 rubles per kg of a carcass of a broiler chicken in the wholesale link of the Russian Federation, - said Lyubov Savkina. - Factors such as imported equipment, spare parts, feed, vaccines, hatching eggs, breeding stock affect the cost of production, but we must add the seasonality factor to them. It is also worth noting that, according to the Rosselkhoznadzor, over the eight months of this year, 43 outbreaks of avian influenza have already been registered in Russia in 16 regions of the country, and a year ago in the same period - 15 outbreaks in 7 regions of the country. That is, the epizootic situation also affects the cost of production.”
Therefore, when building forecasts or scenarios for the cost of chicken meat, you need to take into account all factors and understand that if at least one is dropped or added, the situation can change dramatically, the analyst said.
“Now, for example, people spend more on food than a year ago, but less on household goods. Here the psychological factor of the population is already connected, due to public sentiments. If citizens start buying products on their nerves for good, the price for them will begin to rise (the covid hype was an example of this), ”explained Lyubov Savkina.
Kommersant and Izvestia wrote in 2021 about how bird flu raises wholesale prices for eggs and poultry meat. An example of a product with a rush demand in March 2022 was sugar for Russians.
Poultry farming also needs a “booking”
At one of the poultry farms in the Komi Republic, the Moskovskaya journalist was told that the enterprise is currently most concerned about the issue of partial mobilization.
“We are fighting for every employee,” said the reception of the poultry farm. - It is difficult to say whether partial mobilization affects the cost of chicken and eggs. But the current events have affected everything, including the poultry industry.”
Socially significant becomes more expensive only in wholesale?
Chairman of the Presidium of AKORT (Association of Retail Companies) Igor Karavaev assures that there are no prerequisites for a rise in the price of eggs and chicken meat in retail chains.
“Prices for chicken eggs and meat are characterized by multidirectional dynamics,” said the chairman of AKORT. “The release of eggs and chicken meat on the domestic market partially depends on imported raw materials and feed, the cost is also affected by logistics costs, price dynamics vary depending on the region and the remoteness of the delivery of feed, raw materials and the logistics of the products themselves.”
According to the ACORT chairman, producers' costs are not always translated into shelf prices, especially when it comes to socially important goods, which include eggs and chicken meat.
“In general, since the beginning of the year, prices for eggs have decreased by 16.4%, and chicken meat has fallen in price by 0.1%, including due to the strengthening of the ruble and the efforts of retail chains to curb price increases for socially important goods,” concluded Igor Karavaev .