This year, agricultural production may increase by 1% compared to 2019 with a planned value of 1.8%, according to the National Report of the Ministry of Agriculture following the implementation of the state program for agricultural development. Relative to the base year 2017, the industry will grow by 4.8% against the target of 3.8%. Including plant growing, it is expected to add 1.9% to last year, livestock - 1.5%. Under favorable economic and weather conditions, forecast indicators may be higher.
According to the forecast of the ministry, the gross harvest of grain and legumes this year will be 121.9 million tons, which is 0.6% more than in 2019. In mid-June, the Ministry of Agriculture raised the yield estimate from 120 million tons to 122.5 million tons. The gross harvest of sunflower seeds will decrease by 7.1% to 14.3 million tons, vegetables will remain at the same level as last year and will reach 14.1 million tons, the potato department predicts an increase of 0.5% to 22.2 million tons.
Pork production this year may add 4-5%, poultry - 1.5-2%, beef - 1.5%, while imports of all types of meat will continue to decline. The Ministry of Agriculture expects that due to lower demand, prices for pork and poultry meat will decrease by 5-10% throughout the year, and beef prices will depend on import volumes. An increase in meat exports will help stabilize domestic prices, but increase competition may be hindered by tougher competition in foreign markets, as well as a significant drop in prices in some countries due to lower demand in certain sales channels, which is associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nevertheless, the agro-agency sees risks to the financial stability of the meat industry, which is associated with the expected decline in production profitability.