Rabobank makes its predictions for 2018 pork production, exports, and imports in the global market.In Q1 2018, global pork supply is forecast to increase further, mainly driven by the US, Canada, and Brazil.
However, according to Chenjun Pan, RaboResearch Senior Analyst – Animal Protein, “the most significant story in global pork markets has been the slowing imports into China, which creates a risk of oversupplied global markets. However, we do expect China’s imports to pick up somewhat over the rest of the year, leading the EU, the US, and Canada to continue their battle for China’s pork market in 2018.” Rabobank states that this drop in availability follows capacity reductions triggered by stricter environmental policy enforcement in 2017.
Other highlights from the Pork Quarterly Q1 2018:
- EU: Expect increased production to reach the market beginning in 2018. Additional supply is expected to pressure pig prices and cutout values. This price decline could stimulate consumption and exports.
- US: Faster growth in US pork production, of 4.3%, will necessitate the free flow of exports and healthy domestic demand. Strong exports to start the year have intensified the competition for market hogs, to the detriment of packer returns.
- Brazil: Local pork demand expected to increase, along with the improving economic conditions. Expected stabilisation of feed costs will continue to support good profitability for hog producers for much of 2018. Russia’s ban on Brazilian pork remains a wild card for 2018.
- Vietnam: Production capacity is forecast to rise one percent this year to 2.8 million tonnes. This said, pork demand is set to decrease by just under one percent.
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